Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 3

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Eladio de Barros Carvalho (Aflitos) (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Globoplay, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Náutico Capibaribe		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.4	5.75
	1.68	3.35	5.3
	1.68	3.46	6.37
	1.66	3.5	5.73	Watch
	1.7	3.3	5
	1.68	3.32	5.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.83)	3.39 ↑ (3.23)	5.63 ↑ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
55.9%

Draw
27.5%

Ponte Preta
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

28.5%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

27.3%

20.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Náutico Capibaribe's performance.

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Náutico (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Ponte Preta (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Náutico Capibaribe will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Náutico (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Ponte Preta (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Muriel Becker (G) 14. Matheus Ribeiro 25. Mateus Silva 23. Igor Fernandes 6. Yuri 19. Leonai Souza 8. Wenderson 7. Vinicius (C) 10. Dodo 77. Juninho 9. Paulo Sergio	12. Diogo Silva (G) 22. Thalys 33. David Braz 44. Marcio Silva 13. Diego Porfirio 20. Murilo 6. Saravia Salvia R. A. 31. Bryan Borges 10. Elvis 11. Luis Phelipe 9. Willian Pottker (C)
Substitutes
2. Arnaldo 5. Auremir 72. Derek 98. Felipe Saraiva 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 46. Gustavo Henrique 13. Indio 66. Leo Jance 40. Ramon 41. Samuel Felix 11. Victor Andrade 22. Vitinho	8. Andre Lima 99. Brandao 77. Bruno Lopes 14. Danilo Barcelos 30. Guilherme Viana (G) 19. Jonathan Cafu 2. Julio 16. Leo Gomes 3. Lucas Cunha 5. Rodrigo Souza 90. Rodriguinho 15. Weverton
Coaches
Helio dos Anjos	Rodrigo Santana

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Leonai Souza 🟨,
45+3', Luis Phelipe 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Leonai Souza ↓, Ramon ↑,
52', Wenderson 🟨,
53', Helio dos Anjos 🟨,
58', Juninho ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
65', Luis Phelipe ↓, Bruno Lopes ↑,
67', Saravia Salvia R. A. 🟥,
73', Matheus Ribeiro ↓, Arnaldo ↑,
73', Paulo Sergio ↓, Derek ↑,
74', Elvis ↓, Andre Lima ↑,
74', Willian Pottker ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
78', 1 - 0, Vinicius (Penalty Awarded),
81', Diego Porfirio ↓, Danilo Barcelos ↑,
81', Bryan Borges ↓, Jonathan Cafu ↑,
84', Dodo 🟨,
90+2', Jonathan Cafu 🟥,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 0.

Náutico has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ponte Preta is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Náutico is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Náutico: Junior Todinho (Muscle Injury) Paulo Sergio (Inactive) Wanderson (Red Card)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 11:24. (average 0.6:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Náutico won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 0.4:1.1).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Nautico: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42
20	Ponte Preta ✔	32	3	4	25	17:68	-51	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
01.04.26	Atlético Goianiense - Náutico Capibaribe	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
08.03.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Sport Recife	0:3 ✺
01.03.26	Sport Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	3:3 ✺
22.02.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Santa Cruz Recife	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WLLTW
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
01.04.26	Ponte Preta - Ceará	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Athletic Club - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
18.03.26	Atlético Goianiense - Ponte Preta	1:0 ✺
10.03.26	Ponte Preta - Guarany de Bagé	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.26	Ponte Preta - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
27.09.25	Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1
20.09.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	0:1
24.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	0:1
Brazilian Serie B
04.11.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	0:1
20.07.22	Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
16.10.21	Ponte Preta - Náutico Capibaribe	2:3
12.07.21	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	1:1

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