Match Info
Serie D - Round 13Date: 20 July 2025, SundayLocation: Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz (Itajaí)
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 |
|
 |
|
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Náutico Marcílio Dias |
|
Guarany de Bagé |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.71 |
3.25 |
4.4 |
|
 |
1.52 |
3.25 |
6.3 |
|
 |
1.54 |
3.41 |
6.9 |
|
 |
1.88 |
2.41 |
7.48 |
 Watch |
 |
1.53 |
3.34 |
6.85 |
|
 |
1.68 |
3.29 |
4.53 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.64 ↓
(1.66) |
3.16 ↓
(3.4) |
6.08 ↑
(4.7) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
- The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Náutico Marcílio Dias
55.8% | Draw
29.1% | Guarany de Bagé
15.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Náutico Marcílio Dias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)Guarany de Bagé has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Marcílio Dias than the current prediction. (+1.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarany de Bagé than the current prediction. (+3.2%)Náutico Marcílio Dias - Guarany de Bagé Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 75', 1 - 0, ⚽,
- 85', 1 - 1, ⚽,
Preview
Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 5).The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.Guarany de Bagé may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times. In this match, Marcílio Dias is a strong favorite.In the last 1 head-to-head match, Marcílio Dias won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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