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Current Win Probability
Nõmme Kalju 75%
Draw 15.7%
Kuressaare 9.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
61.2%
20.1%
18.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
65.4%
18.8%
17.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nõmme Kalju has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nõmme Kalju's performance.
Kuressaare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kuressaare might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nõmme Kalju than the current prediction. (-9.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nõmme Kalju that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kuressaare than the current prediction. (+8.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kuressaare could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Nõmme Kalju - Kuressaare Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Perk H. (C) 78. Mashchenko D. 46. Vukusic R. 20. Tambedou M. 26. Siht R. 8. Musolitin O. 59. Vastsuk B. 6. Kask K. 10. Ivanov N. 7. Tarassenkov D. 27. Mannilaan M.
31. Nomm K. (C) 23. Saar R. 36. Piil R. 21. Lukka M. 27. Prunn S. 5. Sinilaid S. 8. Andreas D. 77. Demidov E. 7. Talu R. 11. Jurisoo T. 10. Kivi A.
Substitutes
21. Baptista T. 4. Boronilstsikov A. 24. Iljin A. 30. Jabir I. 5. Korre U. 2. Lillemets J. 22. Nikolajev A. 11. Orlov M. 69. Pavlov M. (G) 50. Podholjuzin M. 88. Sotsugov D.
18. Dzemesjuk M. 44. Joost O. 72. Lohmus R. 41. Opp M. 22. Ristna S. (G) 17. Roivassepp G. 80. Tarkmeel R. 70. Vahermagi J. 13. Visse A.
Coaches
Andreev N.
Post S.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Mannilaan M. ⚽, Vastsuk B. (A),
41', 2 - 0, Mashchenko D. ⚽, Musolitin O. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Kask K. ↓, Sotsugov D. ↑,
52', Prunn S. 🟨,
60', Tarassenkov D. ↓, Boronilstsikov A. ↑,
60', Vastsuk B. ↓, Baptista T. ↑,
65', Sinilaid S. 🟨,
67', Mannilaan M. ↓, Orlov M. ↑,
70', Kivi A. ↓, Visse A. ↑,
75', 3 - 0, Ivanov N. ⚽,
75', Talu R. ↓, Vahermagi J. ↑,
78', Vahermagi J. 🟨,
81', Ivanov N. ↓, Iljin A. ↑,
89', 4 - 0, Orlov M. ⚽,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nõmme Kalju won 5.
Nõmme Kalju is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
In recent matches, Kuressaare has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Recently, Nõmme Kalju has had a series of away games.
In this match, Nõmme Kalju is the undeniable favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nõmme Kalju won 15 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 44:11. (average 2.2:0.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Nõmme Kalju won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 25:6. (average 2.8:0.7).
Estonia
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Perk H. (C) 
Mashchenko D. 
Vukusic R. 
Tambedou M. 
Baptista T. 
Jabir I. 
Pavlov M. (G) 
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