Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 4

Date: 3 April 2026, Friday

Location: Kuressaare Linnastaadion (Kuressaare)

Referee: Laane K. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Soccernet TV


	Kuressaare		Paide LM

	1	X	2
	6.9	4.25	1.41	Watch
	7.44	4.86	1.38
	7.38	4.79	1.38	Watch
	6.5	4.33	1.36
	7.06	4.5	1.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.06 ↓ (7.5)	4.55 ↓ (5.15)	1.38 ↑ (1.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kuressaare
13%

Draw
20.2%

Paide LM
66.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.3%

17.9%

69.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.8%

17.2%

72.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kuressaare has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Paide LM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kuressaare than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paide LM could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Kuressaare - Paide LM Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Kuressaare will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Paide will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Kuressaare (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Nomm K. (C) 68. Vahermagi J. 36. Piil R. 21. Lukka M. 27. Prunn S. 5. Sinilaid S. 8. Andreas D. 77. Demidov E. 7. Talu R. 11. Jurisoo T. 10. Kivi A.	99. Jarju E. (C) 7. Tur E. 27. Baranov N. 4. Andrade 2. Lilander M. 6. Daniel Cabral 21. Smirnov R. 17. Cham P. A. 11. Sohna M. P. 14. Jobarteh M. 20. Piht K.
Substitutes
18. Dzemesjuk M. 44. Joost O. 37. Leivategija M. 25. Lonks J. 28. Lukas R. 22. Ristna S. (G) 17. Roivassepp G. 80. Tarkmeel R. 70. Vahermagi J. 13. Visse A.	30. Badamosi A. 77. Luts D. 19. Luts S. 12. Meerits M. (G) 24. Nigula R. 15. Ojamaa H. 16. Surogin A.
Coaches
Post S.	Vassiljev V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Baranov N. 🟨,
22', Tur E. ↓, Nigula R. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', 0 - 1, Cham P. A. ⚽, Piht K. (A),
65', Talu R. ↓, Roivassepp G. ↑,
65', Demidov E. ↓, Leivategija M. ↑,
65', Jobarteh M. ↓, Badamosi A. ↑,
65', Piht K. ↓, Luts D. ↑,
74', Cham P. A. ↓, Luts S. ↑,
88', Sohna M. P. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kuressaare won 0.

Kuressaare has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Paide is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Paide is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kuressaare won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 20:40. (average 1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Kuressaare won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:21. (average 1.1:2.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Paide	29	15	6	8	48:36	12	51
8	Kuressaare	29	8	5	16	31:49	-18	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Kuressaare
Estonian Meistriliiga
21.03.26	Nõmme Kalju - Kuressaare	4:0 ✺
14.03.26	Kuressaare - Tammeka	3:2 ✺
08.03.26	Levadia Tallinn - Kuressaare	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
21.02.26	Kuressaare - Narva Trans	2:2 ✺
07.02.26	Kuressaare - Nõmme United	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWLTT
- Paide LM
Estonian Meistriliiga
22.03.26	Levadia Tallinn - Paide LM	2:2 ✺
15.03.26	Paide LM - Narva Trans	1:0 ✺
Estonian Cup
11.03.26	Paide LM - Tallinna Kalev	6:0 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
07.03.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Paide LM	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
28.02.26	Paide LM - Super Nova	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
04.10.25	Kuressaare - Paide LM	1:1
16.08.25	Paide LM - Kuressaare	5:1
Estonian Cup
13.08.25	Kuressaare - Paide LM	1:2
Estonian Meistriliiga
04.05.25	Paide LM - Kuressaare	1:1
02.03.25	Kuressaare - Paide LM	1:2
Estonian Cup
23.11.24	Paide LM - Kuressaare	2:1
Estonian Meistriliiga
21.09.24	Paide LM - Kuressaare	4:3

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