Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 33

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Kuressaare Linnastaadion (Kuressaare) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Frischer J. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Estonia	14:30	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV


	Kuressaare		Paide LM

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.50	1.75
	4.25	3.85	1.66
	4.38	3.89	1.75
	3.92	3.82	1.81	Watch
	4.30	3.85	1.71
	4.18	3.91	1.74	Watch
	3.95	3.70	1.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.1 ↓ (4.13)	3.79 ↓ (3.8)	1.74 ↑ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kuressaare
22.5%

Draw
24.4%

Paide LM
53.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

22%

23.9%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.7%

23.6%

54.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kuressaare has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Paide LM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kuressaare than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Kuressaare - Paide LM Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Paide (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Nomm K. (C) 23. Saar R. 36. Piil R. 21. Lukka M. 27. Prunn S. 28. Lukas R. 8. Andreas D. 77. Demidov E. 7. Talu R. 11. Jurisoo T. 10. Kivi A.	12. Meerits M. (G) 2. Lilander M. 27. Baranov N. 3. Victor Hugo 4. Andrade 28. Hoim O. (C) 14. Jobarteh M. 6. Daniel Cabral 10. Miller M. 23. Palacios J. 19. Luts S.
Substitutes
14. Kobin J. 3. Leedo K. 25. Lonks J. 58. Medvedev A. 41. Opp M. 22. Ristna S. (G) 17. Roivassepp G. 5. Sinilaid S. 80. Tarkmeel R.	17. Cham P. A. 29. Darboe D. 99. Jarju E. (G) 37. Kanne K. 20. Piht K. 63. Reivik K. 16. Surogin A.
Coaches
Post S.	Kink T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', Victor Hugo 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Palacios J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jobarteh M. ↓, Piht K. ↑,
60', Saar R. 🟨,
69', Talu R. ↓, Roivassepp G. ↑,
69', Daniel Cabral ↓, Surogin A. ↑,
72', Meerits M. 🟨,
75', Piht K. 🟨,
77', Kivi A. ↓, Tarkmeel R. ↑,
79', Miller M. ↓, Cham P. A. ↑,
86', Surogin A. 🟨,
87', Saar R. ↓, Kobin J. ↑,
87', Luts S. ↓, Kanne K. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kuressaare won 0.

Kuressaare has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Paide is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Paide carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Kuressaare has recorded 2 wins, 4 draws, and 14 losses, with a goal aggregate of 18:41 (averaging 0.9:2.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Kuressaare against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 7 losses, with 9:21 goals (averaging 0.9:2.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Paide	34	18	6	10	53:41	12	60
9	Kuressaare	34	10	6	18	35:53	-18	36

Last Results with these Odds

Kuressaare - the odds 4.13 are the expected chance of winning is 22.02%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Paide LM - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 54.07%, but this team recently wins 73% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Kuressaare
Estonian Meistriliiga
18.10.26	Kuressaare - Levadia Tallinn	0:2 ✺
14.10.26	Narva Trans - Kuressaare	0:1 ✺
11.10.26	Kuressaare - Flora Tallinn	2:0 ✺
18.09.26	Harju JK Laagri - Kuressaare	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Kuressaare - Tammeka	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 LWWTL
- Paide LM
Estonian Meistriliiga
18.10.26	Paide LM - Narva Trans	2:1 ✺
14.10.26	Paide LM - Tammeka	2:1 ✺
11.10.26	Levadia Tallinn - Paide LM	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	Nõmme United - Paide LM	1:3 ✺
16.09.26	Paide LM - Pärnu Vaprus	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
02.08.26	Paide LM - Kuressaare	1:0
31.05.26	Paide LM - Kuressaare	1:1
03.04.26	Kuressaare - Paide LM	0:1
04.10.25	Kuressaare - Paide LM	1:1
16.08.25	Paide LM - Kuressaare	5:1
Estonian Cup
13.08.25	Kuressaare - Paide LM	1:2
Estonian Meistriliiga
04.05.25	Paide LM - Kuressaare	1:1

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