Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 29

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Männiku Stadium (Tallinn)

Referee: Pukk M. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:


Estonia	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV


	Nõmme United		Paide LM

	1	X	2
	4.10	4.00	1.60
	4.20	4.00	1.64
	4.39	4.47	1.66
	4.44	4.47	1.6	Watch
	4.30	4.35	1.62
	4.18	4.29	1.68
	4.10	4.20	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.24 ↑ (4.11)	4.25 ↓ (4.29)	1.63 ↓ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nõmme United
21.7%

Draw
21.7%

Paide LM
56.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.6%

21.6%

55.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

20.7%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nõmme United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Paide LM has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nõmme United than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paide LM than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Nõmme United - Paide LM Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Nõmme United will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Paide will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nõmme United (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Purg G. (G) 27. Miil M. 4. Alteberg A. 50. Geiger S. 6. Palts M. 10. Frolov A. (C) 7. Torres A. 14. Vassiljev N. 45. Jarvelaid H. 15. Evans T. 49. Beglarishvili Z.	12. Meerits M. (G) 2. Lilander M. 44. Kait K. 3. Victor Hugo 4. Andrade 6. Daniel Cabral 28. Hoim O. (C) 77. Luts D. 10. Miller M. 23. Palacios J. 9. Anier H.
Substitutes
16. Dacosta O. 31. Kaspar A. 19. Krasnov I. 1. Lagus G. (G) 25. Leppik R. 20. Matas K. 3. Merilai S. 9. Ounapuu E. 13. Truuvaart A.	17. Cham P. A. 29. Darboe D. 99. Jarju E. (G) 14. Jobarteh M. 19. Luts S. 8. Ojamaa H. 15. Ojamaa H. 20. Piht K. 21. Smirnov R. 16. Surogin A.
Coaches
Maling E.	Kink T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Miller M. ⚽, Palacios J. (A),
43', Anier H. ↓, Piht K. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Miil M. ↓, Truuvaart A. ↑,
56', Vassiljev N. ↓, Krasnov I. ↑,
59', 1 - 1, Krasnov I. ⚽,
66', Evans T. ↓, Matas K. ↑,
67', Kait K. ↓, Ojamaa H. ↑,
67', Daniel Cabral ↓, Ojamaa H. ↑,
69', Beglarishvili Z. 🟨,
74', 1 - 2, Ojamaa H. (Penalty Awarded),
77', Luts D. ↓, Luts S. ↑,
81', 1 - 3, Palacios J. ⚽,
86', Beglarishvili Z. ↓, Ounapuu E. ↑,
86', Torres A. ↓, Dacosta O. ↑,
90', 🟨,
90+1', Palts M. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nõmme United won 0.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Nõmme United could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Paide carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, Nõmme United has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:30 (averaging 0.8:3.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Nõmme United against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with 2:12 goals (averaging 0.5:3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Paide	29	15	6	8	48:36	12	51
9	Nomme Utd	29	9	1	19	47:68	-21	28

Last Results with these Odds

Nõmme United - the odds 4.11 are the expected chance of winning is 22.55%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nõmme United
Estonian Meistriliiga
12.09.26	Nõmme United - Flora Tallinn	2:3 ✺
08.09.26	Nõmme Kalju - Nõmme United	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme United	1:0 ✺
Estonian Cup
02.09.26	Nõmme United - Pärnu Vaprus	3:2 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
29.08.26	Nõmme United - Harju JK Laagri	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LWLWL
- Paide LM
Estonian Meistriliiga
16.09.26	Paide LM - Pärnu Vaprus	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Paide LM - Harju JK Laagri	1:2 ✺
09.09.26	Tammeka - Paide LM	0:2 ✺
06.09.26	Paide LM - Levadia Tallinn	0:2 ✺
30.08.26	Flora Tallinn - Paide LM	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
23.08.26	Paide LM - Nõmme United	4:1
10.05.26	Nõmme United - Paide LM	2:3
08.04.26	Paide LM - Nõmme United	3:1
03.11.24	Nõmme United - Paide LM	0:4
14.09.24	Paide LM - Nõmme United	7:2
12.05.24	Nõmme United - Paide LM	0:1
10.03.24	Paide LM - Nõmme United	3:1

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