The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Nõmme United 42%
Draw 25.4%
Pärnu Vaprus 32.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
39.1%
23.9%
37%
Our Initial ML Estimation
40%
23.4%
36.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nõmme United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)
Pärnu Vaprus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nõmme United than the current prediction. (-2%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pärnu Vaprus than the current prediction. (+3.5%)
Nõmme United - Pärnu Vaprus Predictions
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nõmme United (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
71. Purg G. (G) 4. Alteberg A. 49. Beglarishvili Z. 55. Chanda R. 11. Chisala B. 10. Frolov A. (C) 50. Geiger S. 19. Krasnov I. 20. Matas K. 2. Morishige Y. 26. Oostenbrink K.
1. Vainu H. (C) 5. Aer S. 11. Kauber K. 66. Nomm U. 14. Orm R. 8. Pajo T. 9. Poder J. 43. Seppik M. 90. Sild J. 7. Vallik V. 24. Villota M.
Substitutes
16. Dacosta O. 15. Evans T. 45. Jarvelaid H. 24. Kabal G. 23. Laanelaid K. 1. Lagus G. (G) 6. Palts M. 22. Radomskiy A. 7. Torres A. 13. Truuvaart A. 14. Vassiljev N.
15. Aloe K. 17. Kapper S. 19. Korre A. 74. Kutsar K. 42. Limberg M. 28. Lipp M. 16. Nomm O. (G) 3. Rand K. 12. Ristimets M. (G) 20. Valja H. 4. Villota M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (3 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, Beglarishvili Z. ⚽,
23', 2 - 0, Chisala B. ⚽,
35', 2 - 1, Seppik M. ⚽,
38', 3 - 1, Kauber K. (Own goal),
42', Sild J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Oostenbrink K. ↓, Torres A. ↑,
53', Poder J. 🟨,
57', Geiger S. 🟨,
67', Morishige Y. ↓, Dacosta O. ↑,
67', Krasnov I. ↓, Palts M. ↑,
71', Poder J. ↓, Limberg M. ↑,
71', Pajo T. ↓, Kapper S. ↑,
71', Villota M. ↓, Korre A. ↑,
72', Kauber K. ↓, Valja H. ↑,
75', 3 - 2, Limberg M. ⚽,
90+1', 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nõmme United won 2.
Nõmme United is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Pärnu Vaprus has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Nõmme United won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:29. (average 1.4:2.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Nõmme United won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 2:1.8).
Last Results with these Odds
Pärnu Vaprus - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 36.99%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.