Match Info

Meistriliiga - Round 33

Date: 23 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Männiku Stadium (Tallinn) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Laane K. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Estonia	19:00	Jalgpall.ee, Soccernet TV


	Nõmme United		Pärnu Vaprus

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.50	2.95
	2.05	3.45	3.05
	2.06	3.81	3.18
	2.08	3.72	3.14	Watch
	2.01	3.5	3.1
	2.03	3.45	3.09	Watch
	2.02	3.65	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.32)	3.58 ↓ (3.73)	3.09 ↑ (2.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nõmme United
44.9%

Draw
25.5%

Pärnu Vaprus
29.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.2%

24.3%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

24.4%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nõmme United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nõmme United's performance.

Pärnu Vaprus has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pärnu Vaprus might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nõmme United than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nõmme United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pärnu Vaprus than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pärnu Vaprus could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Nõmme United - Pärnu Vaprus Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Pärnu Vaprus will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pärnu Vaprus (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Purg G. (G) 55. Chanda R. 50. Geiger S. 6. Palts M. 23. Laanelaid K. 10. Frolov A. (C) 7. Torres A. 45. Jarvelaid H. 49. Beglarishvili Z. 19. Krasnov I. 9. Ounapuu E.	16. Nomm O. (G) 4. Villota M. (C) 43. Seppik M. 15. Aloe K. 90. Sild J. 8. Pajo T. 24. Villota M. 7. Vallik V. 20. Valja H. 9. Poder J. 42. Limberg M.
Substitutes
4. Alteberg A. 11. Chisala B. 24. Kabal G. 1. Lagus G. (G) 20. Matas K. 27. Miil M. 26. Oostenbrink K. 28. Polda P. (G) 14. Vassiljev N.	5. Aer S. 64. Allas J. 11. Kauber K. 19. Korre A. 66. Nomm U. 14. Orm R. 3. Rand K. 12. Ristimets M. (G) 26. Vahemets O. 1. Vainu H. (G)
Coaches
Maling E.	Prins I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Limberg M. ⚽, Pajo T. (A),
27', 🟨,
33', 1 - 1, Ounapuu E. ⚽, Frolov A. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Chanda R. ↓, Alteberg A. ↑,
59', 2 - 1, Geiger S. ⚽,
65', 🟨,
67', 2 - 2, Pajo T. ⚽,
68', 3 - 2, Ounapuu E. ⚽,
72', 4 - 2, Torres A. ⚽,
80', 🟨,
83', 🟨,
85', 🟨,
88', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nõmme United won 3.

Both teams are currently going through a difficult patch of form.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Nõmme United holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Nõmme United has recorded 4 wins, 1 draw, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 20:32 (averaging 1.4:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Nõmme United against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 15:13 goals (averaging 2.1:1.9 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Nomme Utd	34	12	1	21	55:76	-21	37
8	Parnu JK Vaprus	34	10	7	17	46:68	-22	37

Last Results with these Odds

Pärnu Vaprus - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 36.44%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nõmme United
Estonian Meistriliiga
17.10.26	Nõmme United - Nõmme Kalju	3:0 ✺
13.10.26	Harju JK Laagri - Nõmme United	2:0 ✺
10.10.26	Tammeka - Nõmme United	4:0 ✺
19.09.26	Nõmme United - Paide LM	1:3 ✺
12.09.26	Nõmme United - Flora Tallinn	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLLLL
- Pärnu JK Vaprus
Estonian Meistriliiga
18.10.26	Harju JK Laagri - Pärnu Vaprus	2:0 ✺
13.10.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme Kalju	2:2 ✺
10.10.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Narva Trans	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Flora Tallinn - Pärnu Vaprus	3:2 ✺
16.09.26	Paide LM - Pärnu Vaprus	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Estonian Meistriliiga
05.09.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme United	1:0
Estonian Cup
02.09.26	Nõmme United - Pärnu Vaprus	3:2
Estonian Meistriliiga
02.05.26	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme United	2:3
14.03.26	Nõmme United - Pärnu Vaprus	7:1
Club Friendly
12.02.25	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme United	7:0
Estonian Meistriliiga
19.10.24	Nõmme United - Pärnu Vaprus	0:2
13.07.24	Pärnu Vaprus - Nõmme United	2:0

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