Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 7

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Max-Morlock-Stadion (Nuremberg)

Referee: Eckermann M. P. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Nürnberg		Hertha Berlin

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.5	3.1	Watch
	2.22	3.5	2.88
	2.29	3.73	3.12
	4.30	4.10	1.70	Watch
	2.27	3.68	2.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↓ (3.1)	3.7 ↑ (3.5)	2.75 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nürnberg
37.3%

Draw
26.7%

Hertha Berlin
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.7%

26.3%

43.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.2%

25.9%

44.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nürnberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nürnberg's performance.

Hertha Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hertha Berlin might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nürnberg than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nürnberg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hertha Berlin than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Hertha Berlin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	11.1%	11.1%

Nürnberg - Hertha Berlin Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Nürnberg will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Hertha will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nürnberg: 50.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nürnberg (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Hertha (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nürnberg (votes: 1 - 50%). Hertha (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Reichert J. (G) 15. Drexler T. 4. Gruber F. 24. Lochoshvili L. 21. Yilmaz B. 25. Becker F. O. 6. Markhiev A. 20. Demba P. 10. Justvan J. 18. Lubach R. 23. Zoma M. A.	1. Ernst T. (G) 44. Gechter L. 37. Leistner T. 31. Dardai M. 42. Zeefuik D. 23. Eichhorn K. 10. Cuisance M. 22. Winkler M. 24. Thorsteinsson J. D. 11. Reese F. 17. Gronning S.
Substitutes
7. Biron M. 17. Chaikhoun A. 33. Grimaldi A. 19. Grzywacz E. 32. Janisch T. 31. Knoche R. 26. Mathenia C. (G) 41. Porstner E. 11. Stepanov A.	2. Eitschberger J. 35. Gersbeck M. (G) 5. Jensen L. 33. Karbownik M. 9. Kownacki D. 14. Krattenmacher M. 21. Mamuzah Lum B. 18. Schuler L. 8. Sessa K.
Coaches
Klose M.	Leitl S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
2', 0 - 1, Winkler M. ⚽, Reese F. (A),
37', Markhiev A. ↓, Stepanov A. ↑,
41', 0 - 2, Cuisance M. ⚽,
45+5', Reese F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Eichhorn K. 🟨,
59', Dardai M. 🟨,
63', Eichhorn K. ↓, Jensen L. ↑,
63', Gronning S. ↓, Kownacki D. ↑,
70', Demba P. ↓, Grimaldi A. ↑,
70', Lochoshvili L. ↓, Janisch T. ↑,
77', Drexler T. 🟨,
82', Cuisance M. ↓, Mamuzah Lum B. ↑,
85', 0 - 3, Kownacki D. ⚽, Reese F. (A),
89', Dardai M. ↓, Eitschberger J. ↑,
89', Zoma M. A. ↓, Biron M. ↑,
90', Becker F. O. ↓, Grzywacz E. ↑,
90', Kownacki D. ↓, Krattenmacher M. ↑,
90+2', Grzywacz E. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 in the zone 2. Bundesliga (Relegation) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nürnberg won 1.

Nürnberg is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Hertha's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Nürnberg: Buchmann T. (Foot Injury) Maboulou N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Hertha: Brooks J. (Ankle Injury) Demme D. (Head Injury) Gersbeck M. (Injury) Goller T. (Shoulder Injury) Karbownik M. (Ankle Injury) Klemens P. (Ankle Injury) Kolbe N. (Broken rib) Seguin P. (Calf Injury)

There are questionable in Hertha: Kownacki D. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Nürnberg won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:15. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Nürnberg won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 1:1.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Nürnberg - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 29.75%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Hertha Berlin - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 43.91%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Nürnberg
German 2 Bundesliga
20.09.25	Nürnberg - Bochum	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Karlsruher - Nürnberg	2:1 ✺
29.08.25	Nürnberg - Paderborn	0:0 ✺
22.08.25	Preußen Münster - Nürnberg	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
16.08.25	Illertissen - Nürnberg	4:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLTLL
- Hertha Berlin
German 2 Bundesliga
20.09.25	Hertha Berlin - Paderborn	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	Hannover - Hertha Berlin	0:3 ✺
29.08.25	Hertha Berlin - Elversberg	0:2 ✺
24.08.25	Darmstadt - Hertha Berlin	0:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
18.08.25	Preußen Münster - Hertha Berlin	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
21.02.25	Hertha Berlin - Nürnberg	0:0
21.09.24	Nürnberg - Hertha Berlin	0:2
30.03.24	Hertha Berlin - Nürnberg	3:3
22.10.23	Nürnberg - Hertha Berlin	3:1
German Bundesliga
20.01.19	Nürnberg - Hertha Berlin	1:3
25.08.18	Hertha Berlin - Nürnberg	1:0
German DFB Pokal
16.12.15	Nürnberg - Hertha Berlin	0:2

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