The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Nacional 37.6%
Draw 29.8%
Chaves 32.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
42.8%
30.2%
27%
Our Initial ML Estimation
58%
22.3%
19.9%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nacional's form might have worsened.
Chaves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chaves's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+20.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nacional, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (-12.7%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chaves, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
63.6%
33.3%
3%
Nacional - Chaves Predictions
Users Predictions:
33 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 21 - 63.6%). Chaves will win (votes: 1 - 3%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 33.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 47.2% – 80%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 11).
Recent matches Nacional is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Chaves is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Nacional could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
Recently Nacional have a series of guest games.
The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.
Last 7 head-to-head matches Nacional won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10-10.
Including matches at home between the teams Nacional won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-4.
Watch
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