Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 23

Date: 5 March 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio da Madeira (Funchal)

Referee: Bessa J. (Por)


	Nacional		Covilhã

	1	X	2
	2	3.3	3.4
	1.95	3.2	3.4
	1.83	3.55	3.7
	2.03	3.35	3.45
	2.04	3.46	3.92
	1.95	3.1	3.6
	1.97	3.4	3.65
	2	3.3	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.86)	3.33 ↓ (3.67)	3.57 ↓ (3.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional
46.6%

Draw
27.6%

Covilhã
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

25.6%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

26.7%

22.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Covilhã has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nacional, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Nacional - Covilhã Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Covilhã will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nacional won 3.

Instantly two teams are in a excellent shape.

Covilhã could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Nacional will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Nacional won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Nacional won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Nacional
Portuguese Liga 2
26.02.23	BSAD - Nacional	0:1 ✺
19.02.23	Nacional - Leixões	1:2 ✺
13.02.23	Mafra - Nacional	3:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
09.02.23	Casa Pia - Nacional	2:5 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
04.02.23	Nacional - Torreense	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23 WLTWW
- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 2
26.02.23	Covilhã - Farense	1:0 ✺
18.02.23	Penafiel - Covilhã	1:1 ✺
11.02.23	Covilhã - Tondela	1:0 ✺
06.02.23	Feirense - Covilhã	0:2 ✺
29.01.23	Covilhã - Porto B	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 31.8 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese League Cup
14.12.22	Covilhã - Nacional	1:2
Portuguese Liga 2
11.09.22	Covilhã - Nacional	1:2
05.03.22	Nacional - Covilhã	1:1
10.10.21	Covilhã - Nacional	1:1
10.11.19	Nacional - Covilhã	1:0
11.02.18	Nacional - Covilhã	1:1
27.08.17	Covilhã - Nacional	0:1

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