Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo María Mincheff de Lazaroff (Montevideo)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Danubio		Deportivo Maldonado

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.9	2.63	Watch
	2.68	2.92	2.68
	2.85	2.99	2.89
	2.9	2.97	2.61	Watch
	2.7	2.88	2.7
	2.63	3.06	2.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↓ (3.06)	2.95 ↓ (3.08)	2.71 ↑ (2.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Danubio
34.3%

Draw
31.5%

Deportivo Maldonado
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

30.3%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

30.5%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Danubio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Deportivo Maldonado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Maldonado than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goicoechea M. (G) 18. Mayada C. 2. Velazquez E. 4. Rinaldi M. 31. Cavanagh T. 16. Rossi I. 8. Rodriguez S. 6. Sosa L. 10. Peralta M. 20. Ferreira M. 30. Fernandez S.	25. Segovia D. (G) 4. Ginzo J. M. 3. Menosse H. 42. Fernandez J. 20. Tormo S. 17. Ramirez S. 8. Gonzalez M. 14. Tabo C. 10. Noble Sequeira A. M. 21. Espindola M. 16. Cesar R.
Substitutes
19. Azambuja B. 21. Azambuja N. 7. Cabrera E. 28. Femia E. 29. Jourdan M. 32. Martinez K. (G) 5. Millan J. 26. Montana A. 3. Pereyra J. 17. Velazquez A.	9. de Leon E. 1. Freitas A. (G) 33. Fuica N. 15. Gonzalez S. 11. Lopez G. 5. Nunez L. 32. Petryk H. 22. Ramos J. 19. Tealde F. 23. Vila A.
Coaches
Matosas G.	Di Noia G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Fernandez S. ⚽,
32', Gonzalez M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
48', Mayada C. 🟨,
51', 1 - 1, Tabo C. ⚽,
55', Sosa L. ↓, Jourdan M. ↑,
55', Fernandez S. ↓, Azambuja N. ↑,
59', Rodriguez S. ↓, Cabrera E. ↑,
61', Ramirez S. 🟨,
67', Fernandez J. ↓, Fuica N. ↑,
67', Ramirez S. ↓, Tealde F. ↑,
71', Rossi I. ↓, Millan J. ↑,
71', Ferreira M. ↓, Femia E. ↑,
71', Gonzalez M. ↓, Gonzalez S. ↑,
80', Espindola M. ↓, Lopez G. ↑,
80', Tabo C. ↓, Vila A. ↑,
90+2', Menosse H. 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Danubio won 2.

Danubio has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Maldonado's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Danubio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Danubio won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:9. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Danubio won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Maldonado	9	5	2	2	13:5	8	17
13	Danubio	9	1	4	4	4:10	-6	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
12.04.26	Central Español - Danubio	2:2 ✺
04.04.26	Danubio - Montevideo City Torque	1:1 ✺
30.03.26	Cerro Largo - Danubio	2:0 ✺
26.03.26	Danubio - Defensor Sporting	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Danubio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TTLTL
- Deportivo Maldonado SAD
Uruguayan Primera Division
11.04.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Nacional Montevideo	4:2 ✺
05.04.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	0:2 ✺
30.03.26	Central Español - Deportivo Maldonado	2:1 ✺
24.03.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Montevideo City Torque	1:0 ✺
20.03.26	Cerro Largo - Deportivo Maldonado	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
02.12.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Danubio	3:1
03.06.24	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1
06.11.23	Deportivo Maldonado - Danubio	1:2
25.03.23	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	4:0
07.08.22	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	0:0
14.02.22	Deportivo Maldonado - Danubio	1:2
23.03.21	Danubio - Deportivo Maldonado	2:2

Upcoming Matches