Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 30 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla (Melo)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Disney+


	Cerro Largo		Danubio

	1	X	2
	2.7	3	2.4	Watch
	2.82	3	2.45
	3.12	3.05	2.58
	2.94	3.06	2.52	Watch
	2.63	3	2.5
	3.01	2.95	2.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.81)	3.01 ↓ (3.07)	2.49 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro Largo
32.2%

Draw
30.7%

Danubio
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

30.4%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

29.7%

37.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro Largo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Danubio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	60%	40%

Cerro Largo - Danubio Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Danubio will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', Marcel S. 🟨,
33', Costantino I. ↓, Cabrera E. ↑,
34', Cavanagh T. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Marcel S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Sosa L. ↓, Pereyra J. ↑,
59', 🟨,
63', Daguerre D. ↓, Bertocchi N. ↑,
66', Peralta M. ↓, Ferreira M. ↑,
70', Jourdan E. ↓, Monserrat M. ↑,
87', Pandiani A. 🟨,
87', Marcel S. ↓, Hernandez B. ↑,
87', Pandiani A. ↓, Ramos N. ↑,
90', 2 - 0, Correa T. ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro Largo won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Danubio may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cerro Largo won 8 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:15. (average 1.1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerro Largo won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:5. (average 1.2:0.5).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Danubio	9	1	4	4	4:10	-6	7
14	Cerro Largo	9	0	5	4	6:12	-6	5

Last Results with these Odds

Cerro Largo - the odds 2.81 are the expected chance of winning is 33.24%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Danubio - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 36.34%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera Division
24.03.26	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo	3:0 ✺
20.03.26	Cerro Largo - Deportivo Maldonado	3:1 ✺
15.03.26	Central Español - Cerro Largo	1:3 ✺
09.03.26	Cerro Largo - Montevideo City Torque	0:1 ✺
01.03.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWLL
- Danubio FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.03.26	Danubio - Defensor Sporting	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Danubio	2:1 ✺
16.03.26	Danubio - Juventud de Las Piedras	4:1 ✺
07.03.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Danubio	1:1 ✺
28.02.26	Danubio - Progreso	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
18.08.25	Cerro Largo - Danubio	1:0
Copa Sudamericana
06.03.25	Cerro Largo - Danubio	3:2 penalties
Uruguayan Primera Division
15.02.25	Danubio - Cerro Largo	0:0
20.10.24	Cerro Largo - Danubio	0:0
09.06.24	Cerro Largo - Danubio	2:2
20.04.24	Danubio - Cerro Largo	1:1
02.09.23	Danubio - Cerro Largo	2:0

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