Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 8 May 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Víctor Agustín Ugarte (Potosí)

Referee: Cajas A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 4


	Nacional Potosí		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.4	2.6	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.65
	2.55	3.4	2.6	Watch
	2.66	3.4	2.7
	2.66	3.29	2.63
	2.5	3.3	2.5	Watch
	2.68	3.37	2.5	Watch
	2.55	3.35	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.24)	3.35 ↓ (3.51)	2.59 ↓ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Potosí
36.1%

Draw
27.9%

Fortaleza
36.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

26.5%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

26.1%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Potosí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nacional Potosí's form might have worsened.

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Potosí than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.6%	18.7%	65.6%

Nacional Potosí - Fortaleza Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Nacional Potosí will win (votes: 5 - 16.1%). Fortaleza will win (votes: 21 - 67.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 51.2% – 84.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mustafa S. (G) 23. Baldomar O. 2. Ortiz M. 6. Restrepo E. 5. Mancilla D. 10. Galindo S. 22. Hoyos J. 8. Pavia L. 20. Prost M. 19. Callejo F. 9. Cristaldo G.	1. Joao Ricardo (G) 19. Britez E. 28. Pedro Augusto 4. Titi 6. Bruno Pacheco 8. Emmanuel Martinez 17. Ze Welison 16. Matheus Rossetto 22. Yago Pikachu 9. Lucero J. 39. Machuca I.
Substitutes
25. Adorno C. (G) 29. Alvarez W. 15. Andia J. 14. Anez O. 18. Azogue P. 13. Cabrera A. 3. Guerra J. 17. Guerra S. 32. Leanos H. 21. Ortiz M. 7. Romay K. 16. Torrico A.	77. Andrade K. 20. Dudu 35. Hercules 34. Iarley Barros 14. Jhonatan Silva 37. Kauan 18. Luquinhas 21. Moises 32. Pedro Rocha 7. Pochettino T. 23. Santos (G) 2. Tinga
Coaches
Biaggio C.	Vojvoda J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Callejo F. ⚽, Prost M. (A),
16', 1 - 1, Lucero J. ⚽, Machuca I. (A),
37', 2 - 1, Prost M. ⚽, Cristaldo G. (A),
39', Yago Pikachu 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Ze Welison ↓, Moises ↑,
46', Emmanuel Martinez ↓, Tinga ↑,
60', Yago Pikachu ↓, Pedro Rocha ↑,
62', Pavia L. ↓, Guerra S. ↑,
62', Cristaldo G. ↓, Alvarez W. ↑,
66', Hoyos J. 🟨,
67', Galindo S. ↓, Azogue P. ↑,
70', 3 - 1, Guerra S. ⚽,
71', Matheus Rossetto ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
72', Guerra S. 🟨,
73', Machuca I. ↓, Andrade K. ↑,
78', Hoyos J. ↓, Andia J. ↑,
78', Callejo F. ↓, Torrico A. ↑,
90+3', 4 - 1, Alvarez W. ⚽, Prost M. (A),

Preview

Nacional Potosí has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Fortaleza is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Nacional Potosí could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Nacional Potosí have a series of guest games.

Recently Fortaleza have a series of home games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Our prediction for today's Fortaleza to win the game is with odds 2.73.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Nacional Potosí won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Potosí
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.24	Sportivo Trinidense - Nacional Potosí	2:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
17.04.24	Universitario de Vinto - Nacional Potosí	3:1 ✺
14.04.24	Nacional Potosí - Universitario de Vinto	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
10.04.24	Fortaleza - Nacional Potosí	5:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
06.04.24	Blooming - Nacional Potosí	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.24	Corinthians - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.24	Fortaleza - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.04.24	Fortaleza - Red Bull Bragantino	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
25.04.24	Fortaleza - Boca Juniors	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
21.04.24	Fortaleza - Altos	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
10.04.24	Fortaleza - Nacional Potosí	5:0

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