Match Info

J3 League - Round 11

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Nagano U Stadium (Nagano)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Nagano Parceiro		Sagamihara

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.1	2.25
	3.2	3.15	2.15
	3.4	3.31	2.13
	3.25	3.17	2.27	Watch
	2.9	3	2.25
	3.29	3.13	2.11	Watch
	3.2	3.15	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.15 ↑ (2.85)	3.14 ↓ (3.25)	2.19 ↓ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nagano Parceiro
29.1%

Draw
29.1%

Sagamihara
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

27.8%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

26.8%

42%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagano Parceiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Sagamihara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nagano Parceiro than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sagamihara than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Nagano Parceiro - Sagamihara Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Nagano (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nagano (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Matsubara S. (G) 5. Hasegawa Y. 3. Tomita K. 24. Sunamori K. 25. Tanaka K. 46. Koga S. 17. Kutsuna K. 10. Yamanaka R. 14. Sanda N. 20. Kano H. 9. Fujimori R.	46. Baumann N. (G) 3. Pytlik K. 33. Tokida M. 2. Kato D. 22. Fukui K. 4. Shimakawa T. 7. Kawano R. 17. Takeuchi T. 6. Tokunaga Y. 14. Takagi A. 23. Kato T.
Substitutes
33. Ando K. 28. Fujikawa K. 15. Higuchi K. 19. Ito K. 13. Konishi H. 23. Lim Ji-hoon 11. Shin K. 1. Tajiri K. (G) 22. Yoshida K.	99. Ismaila O. 18. Miki K. 1. Miura M. (G) 11. Muto Y. 27. Nishiyama T. 28. Ogasawara K. 24. Sugimoto R. 80. Takai K. 5. Tashiro M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Tokunaga Y. 🟨,
35', Fujimori R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
61', Fujimori R. ↓, Ito K. ↑,
66', Takagi A. ↓, Ogasawara K. ↑,
71', Kano H. ↓, Shin K. ↑,
71', Sanda N. ↓, Fujikawa K. ↑,
74', Kato T. ↓, Miki K. ↑,
74', Takeuchi T. ↓, Ismaila O. ↑,
81', Sunamori K. ↓, Lim Ji-hoon ↑,
81', Yamanaka R. ↓, Yoshida K. ↑,
85', Kawano R. ↓, Sugimoto R. ↑,
85', Fukui K. ↓, Takai K. ↑,
89', 0 - 1, Takai K. ⚽,
90+2', 1 - 1, Fujikawa K. ⚽, Lim Ji-hoon (A),

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 15 and 16)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagano won 3.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Sagamihara could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Nagano won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 1.1:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Nagano won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Nagano Parceiro - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 31.7%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Nagano Parceiro
Japan J3 League
20.04.25	Vanraure Hachinohe - Nagano Parceiro	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Nagano Parceiro - Ryūkyū	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Nagano Parceiro - Kagoshima United	1:3 ✺
30.03.25	Zweigen Kanazawa - Nagano Parceiro	3:1 ✺
23.03.25	Nagano Parceiro - Fukushima United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTLLW
- SC Sagamihara
Japan J3 League
20.04.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Sagamihara	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Sagamihara - Thespakusatsu Gunma	1:1 ✺
05.04.25	Ryūkyū - Sagamihara	2:0 ✺
30.03.25	Sagamihara - Kamatamare Sanuki	1:1 ✺
Japan J League Cup
26.03.25	Sagamihara - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
31.08.24	Sagamihara - Nagano Parceiro	1:1
09.03.24	Nagano Parceiro - Sagamihara	1:1
29.07.23	Nagano Parceiro - Sagamihara	1:0
15.04.23	Sagamihara - Nagano Parceiro	0:1
16.10.22	Nagano Parceiro - Sagamihara	3:1
02.07.22	Sagamihara - Nagano Parceiro	1:2
03.10.20	Nagano Parceiro - Sagamihara	0:1

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