Match Info

FRANCE: LIGUE 1 - ROUND 15

Date: 13 November 2022, Sunday

Location: Stade de la Beaujoire (Nantes)

Referee: Pignard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Amazon Prime Video


	Nantes		Ajaccio

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.25	3.8	Watch
	2.05	3.2	3.9
	2.02	3.15	4.1
	2.08	3.2	3.75
	2.14	3.25	4.06
	2.05	3.2	3.8	Watch
	2.02	3.35	3.9	Watch
	2.08	3.25	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (2.04)	3.23 ↓ (3.28)	3.91 ↑ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

Watch this match and French Ligue 1 with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN La Liga

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Current Win Probability

Nantes
46.2%

Draw
29.5%

Ajaccio
24.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

28.7%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

28%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Nantes have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Ajaccio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nantes than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.5%	7.7%	12.8%

Nantes - Ajaccio Predictions

Users Predictions: Nantes will win (31 of 39 users predict this - 79.49%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.82% – 92.16%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

Nantes has the most likely position - 14 (9.41%), has project points - 41, has currently - 12, has a chance of relegated (31%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Ajaccio has the most likely position - 17 (10.44%), has project points - 39, has currently - 11, has a chance of relegated (39%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 54, importance 46, match rating 50. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Nantes could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Nantes is a favorite.

There will not play in Nantes: Centonze F. (Injury) Fabio (Injury) Pallois N. (Red Card) Petric D. (Injury) Traore C. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Ajaccio: Avinel C. (Red Card) Mayembo F. (Injury) Touzghar Y. (Injury) Vidal C. (Red Card)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Nantes won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Nantes won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Nantes
French Ligue 1
06.11.22	Reims - Nantes	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
03.11.22	Olympiacos Piraeus - Nantes	0:2 ✺
French Ligue 1
30.10.22	Nantes - Clermont	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.10.22	Nantes - Qarabağ Agdam	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
23.10.22	Nice - Nantes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LWTWT
- AC Ajaccio
French Ligue 1
05.11.22	Ajaccio - Strasbourg	4:2 ✺
30.10.22	Auxerre - Ajaccio	1:0 ✺
21.10.22	Ajaccio - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3 ✺
16.10.22	Troyes - Ajaccio	1:1 ✺
08.10.22	Olympique Marseille - Ajaccio	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.9 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
08.03.14	Nantes - Ajaccio	2:2
19.10.13	Ajaccio - Nantes	0:1

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