Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 11

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Stade de la Beaujoire (Nantes)

Referee: Angoula G. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sport 3
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV7
Russia	Okko Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+


	Nantes		Metz

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.7	3.5	Watch
	2.08	3.55	3.45
	1.95	3.56	3.80	Watch
	2.18	3.66	3.54	Watch
	1.99	3.55	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (2.03)	3.6 ↓ (3.6)	3.64 ↑ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nantes
46.9%

Draw
26.7%

Metz
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

26.5%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

26.3%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nantes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nantes than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

The ML Model estimate for Metz aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.6%	12.9%	6.5%

Nantes - Metz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Nantes (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Nantes (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Nantes will win (25 of 31 users predict this - 80.65%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.74% – 94.56%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nantes will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Nantes (votes: 9 - 90%). Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lopes A. (G) 98. Amian K. (C) 6. Awaziem C. 78. Tati T. 3. Cozza N. 80. Mwanga J. 66. Leroux L. 17. Tabibou D. 11. Guirassy B. 19. El Arabi Y. 10. Abline M.	1. Fischer J. (G) 39. Kouao K. 5. Gbamin J. 15. Yegbe T. 2. Colin M. (C) 12. Toure A. 14. Sabaly C. 23. Sane I. 20. Deminguet J. 7. Tsitaishvili G. 30. Diallo H.
Substitutes
90. Benhattab Y. 14. Camara A. 30. Carlgren P. (G) 18. Centonze F. 52. Deuff B. 5. Kwon Hyeok-Kyu 31. Mostafa Mohamed 26. Radakovic U. 69. Ziani S.	9. Abuashvili G. 99. Asoro J. 19. Bokele Mputu M. 3. Diop M. 29. Guerti I. 16. Jean-Baptiste R. (G) 25. Melieres C. 21. Stambouli B. 8. Traore B.
Coaches
Castro L.	Le Mignan S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Sane I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
65', Tabibou D. 🟨,
67', Guirassy B. ↓, Benhattab Y. ↑,
78', Deminguet J. ↓, Traore B. ↑,
78', Sane I. ↓, Abuashvili G. ↑,
79', Tsitaishvili G. ↓, Bokele Mputu M. ↑,
79', Tabibou D. ↓, Deuff B. ↑,
79', El Arabi Y. ↓, Mostafa Mohamed ↑,
82', 0 - 1, Abuashvili G. ⚽,
89', Cozza N. ↓, Radakovic U. ↑,
89', Lopes A. ↓, Carlgren P. ↑,
89', 0 - 2, Diallo H. ⚽, Sabaly C. (A),
90+2', Diallo H. ↓, Asoro J. ↑,
90+2', Toure A. ↓, Stambouli B. ↑,
90+5', Kouao K. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nantes won 1.

Nantes has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Metz is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Metz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Nantes could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Nantes: Coquelin F. (Hamstring Injury) Hong Hyun-Seok (Muscle Injury) Lahdo M. (Inactive) Lepenant J. (Injury)

There will not play in Metz: Ballo-Toure F. (Muscle Injury) Hein G. (Red Card) Mangondo J. (Knee Injury) Mbaye M. (Foot Injury) Mboula U. (Hamstring Injury) Sane S. (Red Card) Sy P. (Injury)

There are questionable in Metz: Traore B. (Illness)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Nantes won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:17. (average 0.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Nantes won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 0.9:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Nantes
French Ligue 1
29.10.25	Nantes - Monaco	3:5 ✺
24.10.25	Paris FC - Nantes	1:2 ✺
19.10.25	Nantes - Lille	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Brest - Nantes	0:0 ✺
27.09.25	Toulouse - Nantes	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 LWLTT
- FC Metz
French Ligue 1
29.10.25	Metz - Lens	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Lille - Metz	6:1 ✺
19.10.25	Toulouse - Metz	4:0 ✺
04.10.25	Metz - Olympique Marseille	0:3 ✺
28.09.25	Metz - Le Havre	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
03.03.24	Nantes - Metz	0:2
12.11.23	Metz - Nantes	3:1
27.02.22	Metz - Nantes	0:0
15.08.21	Nantes - Metz	2:0
24.01.21	Metz - Nantes	2:0
22.11.20	Nantes - Metz	1:1
15.02.20	Nantes - Metz	0:0

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