Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 10

Date: 29 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Stade Saint-Symphorien (Metz)

Referee: Kherradji A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 9
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	On Golf


	Metz		Lens

	1	X	2
	5.5	4.75	1.48	Watch
	5.95	4.7	1.49
	4.67	3.81	1.78
	4.48	3.67	1.78	Watch
	5.7	4.92	1.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.26 ↑ (4.65)	4.37 ↑ (3.61)	1.61 ↓ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Metz
18.3%

Draw
22%

Lens
59.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.3%

26.2%

53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.1%

26%

53.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Metz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Lens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lens's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metz than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lens than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2.5%	7.5%	90%

Metz - Lens Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2 - Metz (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Lens (1.73) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - draw (1.12) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lens will win (36 of 40 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 99.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lens will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Metz (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Lens (votes: 10 - 90.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fischer J. (G) 2. Colin M. 5. Gbamin J. 15. Yegbe T. 39. Kouao K. 12. Toure A. 20. Deminguet J. 7. Tsitaishvili G. 10. Hein G. (C) 14. Sabaly C. 30. Diallo H.	40. Risser R. (G) 24. Gradit J. 6. Baidoo S. 14. Udol M. 23. Abdulhamid S. 8. Sangare M. 28. Thomasson A. (C) 3. Machado D. 10. Thauvin F. 19. Sima A. 11. Edouard O.
Substitutes
9. Abuashvili G. 99. Asoro J. 19. Bokele Mputu M. 3. Diop M. 29. Guerti I. 16. Jean-Baptiste R. (G) 27. Lawson Y. 25. Melieres C. 23. Sane I.	2. Aguilar R. 5. Bulatovic A. 50. Delplace A. (G) 38. Fofana R. 25. Ganiou I. 29. Guilavogui M. 1. Gurtner R. (G) 22. Said W. 7. Sotoca F.
Coaches
Le Mignan S.	Sage P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Toure A. 🟨,
45+3', Sima A. 🟨,
45+6', Machado D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Sima A. ↓, Guilavogui M. ↑,
46', Edouard O. ↓, Said W. ↑,
63', Machado D. ↓, Aguilar R. ↑,
68', Hein G. 🟨,
81', Tsitaishvili G. ↓, Abuashvili G. ↑,
81', Sabaly C. ↓, Sane I. ↑,
82', Deminguet J. ↓, Guerti I. ↑,
87', 1 - 0, Hein G. (Pen),
88', Gradit J. ↓, Bulatovic A. ↑,
88', Thauvin F. ↓, Fofana R. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 0, Hein G. ⚽, Sane I. (A),
90+2', Hein G. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Metz won 2.

Metz is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Lens is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Metz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lens is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Metz: Mangondo J. (Knee Injury) Mbaye M. (Foot Injury) Mboula U. (Hamstring Injury) Sane S. (Red Card)

There will not play in Lens: Antonio K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Metz: Sy P. (Injury) Traore B. (Illness)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Metz won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:20. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Metz won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:3. (average 1.3:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Metz
French Ligue 1
26.10.25	Lille - Metz	6:1 ✺
19.10.25	Toulouse - Metz	4:0 ✺
04.10.25	Metz - Olympique Marseille	0:3 ✺
28.09.25	Metz - Le Havre	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Monaco - Metz	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLTL
- RC Lens
French Ligue 1
25.10.25	Lens - Olympique Marseille	2:1 ✺
19.10.25	Lens - Paris FC	2:1 ✺
04.10.25	Auxerre - Lens	1:2 ✺
28.09.25	Rennes - Lens	0:0 ✺
20.09.25	Lens - Lille	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
26.07.25	Lens - Metz	2:1
French Ligue 1
12.04.24	Metz - Lens	2:1
16.09.23	Lens - Metz	0:1
13.03.22	Metz - Lens	0:0
24.10.21	Lens - Metz	4:1
14.03.21	Lens - Metz	2:2
19.12.20	Metz - Lens	2:0

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