Match Info

ENGLAND: NPL PREMIER DIVISION - ROUND 12

Date: 15 November 2022, Tuesday


	Nantwich Town		Gainsborough Trinity

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.2	1.98
	2.85	3.25	2.08
	3.2	3.3	2.03
	3.38	3.53	2.03
	3.3	3.1	2.05
	3.42	3.42	1.98
	3.25	3.3	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↓ (3.8)	3.3 ↓ (3.4)	2.03 ↑ (1.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nantwich Town
28%

Draw
27.4%

Gainsborough Trinity
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.9%

26.7%

49.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

26%

50.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nantwich Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Gainsborough Trinity has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nantwich Town than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gainsborough Trinity than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gainsborough Trinity could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	6.7%	86.7%

Nantwich Town - Gainsborough Trinity Predictions

Users Predictions: Gainsborough Trinity will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nantwich won 2.

Recent matches Nantwich is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Gainsborough is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Gainsborough could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Gainsborough will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Nantwich won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Nantwich won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nantwich Town
English NPL Premier Division
12.11.22	Nantwich Town - Morpeth Town	3:0 ✺
05.11.22	Ashton United - Nantwich Town	0:1 ✺
29.10.22	Nantwich Town - Ashton United	1:2 ✺
22.10.22	Nantwich Town - Liversedge	0:1 ✺
15.10.22	Bamber Bridge - Nantwich Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWLLL
- Gainsborough Trinity
English NPL Premier Division
12.11.22	Gainsborough Trinity - Ashton United	2:0 ✺
05.11.22	Belper Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:4 ✺
01.11.22	Marine - Gainsborough Trinity	0:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
29.10.22	Lancaster City - Gainsborough Trinity	3:2 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
25.10.22	Gainsborough Trinity - Morpeth Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
19.03.22	Gainsborough Trinity - Nantwich Town	0:0
11.01.22	Nantwich Town - Gainsborough Trinity	2:1
21.12.19	Gainsborough Trinity - Nantwich Town	0:0
17.08.19	Nantwich Town - Gainsborough Trinity	2:1
05.01.19	Gainsborough Trinity - Nantwich Town	0:0
18.08.18	Nantwich Town - Gainsborough Trinity	1:0

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