Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 6

Date: 29 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples)

Referee: Manganiello G. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football, SuperSport GOtv Select 1, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Angola	Z Sport 2
Argentina	ESPN 3
Asia	STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	DAZN 1, DAZN 2, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Brazil	Claro TV+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	TLN, VIVA
Chile	ESPN 3
China	QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Hungary	Net4+ Sport
India	GXR World
Israel	Sport 1, Sport 2
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 2, ART Sport 2
Malta	TSN Malta 3
Mexico	ESPN
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
Norway	VG+
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV7
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1 Champions
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tanzania	Azam Sports 4
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-arab-emirates	Abu Dhabi Sports Premium 1
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports, TNT Sports 1
Usa	CBS, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports 1, Foxsports.com, Paramount+, SiriusXM FC
Venezuela	Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus
World	Disney+, Onefootball app, Setanta Sports 1 Eurasia


	Napoli		Monza

	1	X	2
	1.3	5.25	9.5	Watch
	1.3	5.5	10
	1.31	5.4	9.7	Watch
	1.31	5.71	11.56
	1.32	5.62	10.35	Watch
	1.29	5.5	11
	1.31	5.97	11.5	Watch
	1.32	5.5	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.46)	5.56 ↑ (4.56)	10.45 ↑ (7.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Napoli
73.5%

Draw
17.3%

Monza
9.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.7%

21%

13.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.1%

20.3%

12.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Napoli's performance.

Monza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Napoli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Monza than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
94.7%	3.9%	1.3%

Napoli - Monza Predictions

Users Predictions: Napoli will win (70 of 74 users predict this - 94.59%).
Confidence interval (95%): 89.44% – 99.74%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Caprile E. (G) 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 13. Rrahmani A. 4. Buongiorno A. 17. Olivera M. 99. Anguissa F. 68. Lobotka S. 8. McTominay S. 21. Politano M. 11. Lukaku R. 77. Kvaratskhelia K.	30. Turati S. (G) 4. Izzo A. 22. Mari P. 44. Carboni A. 13. Pereira P. 42. Bianco A. 38. Bondo W. 77. Kyriakopoulos G. 14. Maldini D. 32. Pessina M. (C) 11. Djuric M.
Substitutes
14. Contini N. (G) 7. David Neres 90. Folorunsho M. 6. Gilmour B. 5. Juan Jesus 16. Marin R. 30. Mazzocchi P. 26. Ngonge C. 81. Raspadori G. 18. Simeone G. 37. Spinazzola L. 12. Turi C. (G) 23. Zerbin A.	54. Berretta A. 19. Birindelli S. 5. Caldirola L. 10. Caprari G. 33. D'Ambrosio D. 20. Forson O. 24. Maric M. 55. Martins K. 69. Mazza A. (G) 21. Pizzignacco S. (G) 52. Postiglione N. 27. Valoti M.
Coaches
Conte A.	Nesta A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Politano M. ⚽,
24', Maldini D. 🟨,
26', Kvaratskhelia K. 🟨,
33', 2 - 0, Kvaratskhelia K. ⚽, McTominay S. (A),
36', Izzo A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
75', Kvaratskhelia K. ↓, Mazzocchi P. ↑,
82', Izzo A. ↓, D'Ambrosio D. ↑,
83', Bianco A. ↓, Caprari G. ↑,
87', Politano M. ↓, David Neres ↑,
87', Lukaku R. ↓, Raspadori G. ↑,
87', Pereira P. ↓, Martins K. ↑,
90+1', Olivera M. ↓, Spinazzola L. ↑,
90+1', Lobotka S. ↓, Gilmour B. ↑,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: ) and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Napoli in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Monza is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Napoli could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Monza have a series of home games.

In this match Napoli is certain favorite.

There will not play in Napoli: Meret A. (Muscle Injury) Rui M. (Coach's decision)

There will not play in Monza: Ciurria P. (Knee Injury) Cragno A. (Shoulder Injury) Gagliardini R. (Injury) Vignato S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Napoli: Folorunsho M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Monza: Birindelli S. (Injury)

Our prediction for today's Napoli to win the game is with odds 1.33.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Napoli won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Napoli won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSC Napoli
Coppa Italia
26.09.24	Napoli - Palermo	5:0 ✺
Italian Serie A
21.09.24	Juventus - Napoli	0:0 ✺
15.09.24	Cagliari - Napoli	0:4 ✺
31.08.24	Napoli - Parma	2:1 ✺
25.08.24	Napoli - Bologna	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WTWWW
- Monza 1912
Coppa Italia
26.09.24	Monza - Brescia	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie A
22.09.24	Monza - Bologna	1:2 ✺
15.09.24	Monza - Inter Milan	1:1 ✺
01.09.24	Fiorentina - Monza	2:2 ✺
24.08.24	Monza - Genoa	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
07.04.24	Monza - Napoli	2:4
29.12.23	Napoli - Monza	0:0
14.05.23	Monza - Napoli	2:0
21.08.22	Napoli - Monza	4:0

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