Match Info

ITALY: Serie A - Round 3

Date: 1 September 2024, Sunday

Location: Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence)

Referee: Colombo A. (Ita)


	Fiorentina		Monza

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.75	5.25	Watch
	1.68	3.75	5
	1.7	3.55	5.4	Watch
	1.7	3.86	5.3
	1.74	3.81	5.02	Watch
	1.67	3.7	5.5
	1.74	3.98	5.28	Watch
	1.72	3.6	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.55)	3.75 ↓ (4.25)	5.28 ↓ (5.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fiorentina
56.3%

Draw
25.6%

Monza
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.4%

22.4%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.3%

21.7%

15.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fiorentina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fiorentina's form might have worsened.

Monza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fiorentina than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fiorentina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monza than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73%	21.6%	5.4%

Fiorentina - Monza Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Fiorentina will win (votes: 25 - 73.5%). Monza will win (votes: 2 - 5.9%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 20.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fiorentina: 58.7% – 88.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Terracciano P. (G) 15. Comuzzo P. 6. Ranieri L. 3. Biraghi C. (C) 2. Dodo 8. Mandragora R. 32. Cataldi D. 21. Gosens R. 23. Colpani A. 9. Beltran L. 20. Kean M.	30. Turati S. (G) 4. Izzo A. 22. Mari P. 44. Carboni A. 13. Pereira P. 32. Pessina M. (C) 38. Bondo W. 77. Kyriakopoulos G. 14. Maldini D. 10. Caprari G. 11. Djuric M.
Substitutes
29. Adli Y. 4. Bove E. 43. de Gea D. (G) 11. Ikone J. 33. Kayode M. 60. Kouadio E. 99. Kouame C. 30. Martinelli T. (G) 28. Martinez Quarta L. 65. Parisi F. 5. Pongracic M. 24. Richardson A. 7. Sottil R.	42. Bianco A. 5. Caldirola L. 33. D'Ambrosio D. 20. Forson O. 6. Gagliardini R. 24. Maric M. 69. Mazza A. (G) 37. Petagna A. 21. Pizzignacco S. (G) 12. Sensi S. 27. Valoti M. 80. Vignato S.
Coaches
Palladino R.	Nesta A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
18', 0 - 1, Djuric M. ⚽, Pereira P. (A),
20', Pessina M. 🟨,
23', Mandragora R. 🟨,
32', 0 - 2, Maldini D. ⚽, Kyriakopoulos G. (A),
45', 1 - 2, Kean M. ⚽, Ranieri L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Mandragora R. ↓, Bove E. ↑,
58', Beltran L. ↓, Kouame C. ↑,
63', Caprari G. ↓, Gagliardini R. ↑,
63', Djuric M. ↓, Petagna A. ↑,
68', Colpani A. ↓, Ikone J. ↑,
68', Cataldi D. ↓, Adli Y. ↑,
69', Maldini D. ↓, Vignato S. ↑,
76', Izzo A. 🟨,
78', Pereira P. ↓, D'Ambrosio D. ↑,
80', Comuzzo P. ↓, Martinez Quarta L. ↑,
80', Carboni A. ↓, Caldirola L. ↑,
81', Petagna A. 🟨,
90+5', Dodo 🟨,
90+6', 2 - 2, Gosens R. ⚽, Adli Y. (A),
90+7', Gagliardini R. 🟨,

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Monza could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Fiorentina is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fiorentina won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Fiorentina won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fiorentina
UEFA Europa Conference League
29.08.24	Puskás Academy - Fiorentina	1:2 penalties ✺
Italian Serie A
25.08.24	Fiorentina - Venezia	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
22.08.24	Fiorentina - Puskás Academy	3:3 ✺
Italian Serie A
17.08.24	Parma - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.24	Freiburg - Fiorentina	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WTTTW
- Monza 1912
Italian Serie A
24.08.24	Monza - Genoa	0:1 ✺
17.08.24	Empoli - Monza	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
13.08.24	Milan - Monza	3:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
09.08.24	Monza - Südtirol-Alto Adige	1:0 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Monza - Sassuolo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
13.05.24	Fiorentina - Monza	2:1
22.12.23	Monza - Fiorentina	0:1
23.04.23	Monza - Fiorentina	3:2
04.01.23	Fiorentina - Monza	1:1
Coppa Italia
18.08.19	Fiorentina - Monza	3:1

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