Match Info

MALTA: PREMIER LEAGUE - ROUND 4

Date: 1 October 2023, Sunday

Location: Naxxar Lions Football Ground (Naxxar)


	Naxxar Lions		Santa Lucia

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.3	2.4
	2.5	3.5	2.4	Watch
	2.94	3.48	2.26
	2.38	3.3	2.6
	2.78	3.5	2.19
	2.55	3.45	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↑ (2.27)	3.42 ↑ (3.34)	2.38 ↓ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Naxxar Lions
35%

Draw
26.6%

Santa Lucia
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

27.2%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

26.6%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Naxxar Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Santa Lucia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Santa Lucia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Naxxar Lions than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Naxxar Lions, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Lucia than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Santa Lucia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Debono M. (G) 15. Cassar R. G. (C) 20. Elizeu 10. Farias E. 33. Joao Moura 23. Maicon Souza 22. Marcilio W. 3. Micallef N. 9. Pablo 8. Pace Cocks N. 17. Yamaguchi T.	12. Celio (G) 3. Ellul M. 20. Gonzalo V. 22. Hulk 33. Patrick 9. Pereira W. 27. Piazza A. 17. Pisani J. (C) 7. Pisani S. 10. Tatsuro N. 55. Xerri S.
Substitutes
14. Azzopardi A. 28. Bonanno G. 19. Bonanno J. J. 29. Degabriele S. 18. Ellul J. 11. Falzon D. 12. Fenech A. (G) 7. Fenech M. 25. Iriele N. 4. Mercieca R. 99. Vella A. (G)	15. Bradshaw A. 21. Carbone J. 1. Cremona M. (G) 80. Gomes E. 4. Johnson M. 11. Lucas Sena 19. Mizzi S. 18. Tanti J. 29. Valletta J. 6. Vella M. 14. Xuereb D.
Coaches
Vella G.	Zinnari A.

Preview

Naxxar has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Santa Lucia is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Naxxar could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Naxxar won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Naxxar won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Naxxar Lions
Maltese Premier League
26.09.23	Gżira United - Naxxar Lions	1:1 ✺
23.09.23	Naxxar Lions - Hamrun Spartans	0:4 ✺
15.09.23	Marsaxlokk - Naxxar Lions	5:1 ✺
Club Friendly
09.09.23	Gudja United - Naxxar Lions	1:0 ✺
01.09.23	Naxxar Lions - Santa Lucia	1:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TLLLL
- Santa Lucia FC
Maltese Premier League
26.09.23	Santa Lucia - Balzan	0:1 ✺
23.09.23	Paola Hibernians - Santa Lucia	3:2 ✺
17.09.23	Santa Lucia - Floriana	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
09.09.23	Santa Lucia - Marsaxlokk	0:1 ✺
01.09.23	Naxxar Lions - Santa Lucia	1:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
01.09.23	Naxxar Lions - Santa Lucia	1:7
Maltese Challenge League
17.02.19	Naxxar Lions - Santa Lucia	2:2
30.09.18	Santa Lucia - Naxxar Lions	4:1

Naxxar Lions - Santa Lucia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide