What is the expert prediction for Cruz Azul vs Philadelphia Union?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Cruz Azul vs Philadelphia Union. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Cruz Azul vs Philadelphia Union Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, August 06, 2026)

Match Info

Leagues Cup

Date: 6 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Subaru Park (Chester, PA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	fubo Sports Network
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	Apple TV International


	Cruz Azul		Philadelphia Union

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.8	3	Watch
	2.45	3.40	2.35
	2.18	3.6	2.98
	2.25	3.81	3.06
	2.29	3.8	2.83	Watch
	2.2	3.75	3
	2.1	3.83	3.18	Watch
	2.21	3.65	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.49)	3.71 ↑ (3.67)	2.93 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cruz Azul
42.3%

Draw
25.5%

Philadelphia Union
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

25.3%

37.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cruz Azul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Philadelphia Union has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Philadelphia Union might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	12.5%	50%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Cruz Azul will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Philadelphia will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Philadelphia: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Mier K. (G) 16. Marquez J. 33. Piovi G. 4. Ditta W. 5. Orozco J. 3. Campos O. 20. Paradela J. 6. Lira E. 8. Palavecino A. 19. Rodriguez C. 21. Fernandez G.	76. Rick A. (G) 39. Westfield F. 5. Sery Larsen J. 26. Harriel N. (C) 27. Wagner K. 6. Sullivan C. 21. Jean Jacques D. 8. Bueno J. 33. Sullivan Q. 23. Alladoh E. 10. Iloski M.
Substitutes
14. Calero J. 49. Diaz J. 17. Garcia A. 1. Gudino A. (G) 7. Ibanez N. 32. Jimenez C. 10. Montano A. 12. Montes A. 18. Romero L. 61. Salgado B. (G) 66. Suarez J.	28. Anello A. 11. Bedoya A. 16. Bender B. 18. Blake A. (G) 9. Damiani B. 51. Jakupovic M. 4. Lukic J. 31. Marks G. (G) 2. Martinez G. 44. Pierre N. 14. Rafanello J. 19. Vassilev I.
Coaches
Huiqui J.	Richter R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Paradela J. ⚽, Campos O. (A),
10', Paradela J. 🟨,
23', Bueno J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Lira E. 🟨,
65', Fernandez G. ↓, Ibanez N. ↑,
65', Campos O. ↓, Romero L. ↑,
66', Sullivan Q. ↓, Vassilev I. ↑,
66', Alladoh E. ↓, Damiani B. ↑,
78', Sery Larsen J. ↓, Pierre N. ↑,
78', Bueno J. ↓, Anello A. ↑,
78', Harriel N. ↓, Lukic J. ↑,
88', Ditta W. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,

Preview

Played on the field of the visiting team.

Cruz Azul is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Cruz Azul won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

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Last Results with these Odds

Cruz Azul - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.29%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Philadelphia Union - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.44%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cruz Azul FC
Mexican Liga MX
01.08.26	Cruz Azul - Atlante	2:3 ✺
Mexican Campeon de Campeones
25.07.26	Toluca - Cruz Azul	1:3 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
21.07.26	Cruz Azul - Puebla	2:1 ✺
17.07.26	Atlético San Luis - Cruz Azul	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
04.07.26	Atlético Morelia - Cruz Azul	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWWWT
- Philadelphia Union
MLS
01.08.26	Philadelphia Union - Atlanta United	3:2 ✺
25.07.26	Philadelphia Union - Seattle Sounders	1:0 ✺
22.07.26	Philadelphia Union - New York Red Bulls	3:1 ✺
24.05.26	Inter Miami - Philadelphia Union	6:4 ✺
16.05.26	Philadelphia Union - Columbus Crew	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF League Cup
04.08.24	Philadelphia Union - Cruz Azul	1:2 penalties

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