Match Info

Premier League - Round 35

Date: 18 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Neftci Arena (Baku)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Neftchi Baku		Səbail

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.3	3.8
	1.82	3.5	3.8	Watch
	1.85	3.45	3.7
	1.75	3.69	4.05	Watch
	1.83	3.3	4
	1.74	3.48	4.22
	1.82	3.5	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 (1.8)	3.46 ↑ (3.25)	3.91 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neftchi Baku
50.5%

Draw
26.3%

Səbail
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

27.6%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.3%

26.8%

22%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neftchi Baku has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Səbail has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Səbail than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Neftchi Baku - Səbail Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Balayev E. (C) 11. Alex Fernandes 23. Bauer R. 22. Darboe D. 99. Koffi E. 14. Kuc E. 8. Mahmudov E. 10. Ozobic F. 91. Salyanskiy A. 9. Sambou B. 24. Seck M.	12. Mustabazada A. (G) 22. Abbasov M. 11. Abdullazada R. 18. Ahmadov S. 14. Allouch S. 20. Celik M. 3. Lytvyn D. 96. Muradov I. 74. Nabiyev Y. (C) 83. Quliyev N. 16. Rustamov E.
Substitutes
78. Abilov E. 93. Cafarov R. (G) 17. Haciyev R. 47. Mammadov M. 18. Ohori R. 19. Salahly A. 30. Samigullin R. (G) 90. Sheydayev R. 88. Shtogrin A.	67. Abasov R. 44. Bilali A. 8. Larrucea G. 97. Mammadov O. 25. Mammadzada N. (G) 77. Nabiyev F. 4. Nikolic M. 99. Nshuti I. 1. Quliyev H. (G) 89. Qurbanov O. 88. Shiraliyev H. 5. Sofir G.
Coaches
Abasov S.	Nurmammadov A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Darboe D. ⚽,
25', 2 - 0, Salyanskiy A. ⚽,
31', Abbasov M. ↓, Nshuti I. ↑,
35', Rustamov E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ahmadov S. ↓, Shiraliyev H. ↑,
46', Nabiyev Y. ↓, Abasov R. ↑,
46', Shiraliyev H. 🟨,
55', Ozobic F. ↓, Haciyev R. ↑,
55', Bauer R. ↓, Shtogrin A. ↑,
64', Salyanskiy A. ↓, Sheydayev R. ↑,
64', Darboe D. ↓, Mammadov M. ↑,
80', 3 - 0, Alex Fernandes ⚽,
80', Muradov I. ↓, Mammadov O. ↑,
80', Quliyev N. ↓, Sofir G. ↑,
82', Mahmudov E. ↓, Abilov E. ↑,

Preview

Səbail is Relegated to I Liqa

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Neftchi won 4.

In recent matches, Neftchi has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Səbail has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Neftchi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Neftchi has had a series of away games.

In this match, Neftchi is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Neftchi won 16 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 47:11. (average 2.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Neftchi won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 23:5. (average 2.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League
10.05.25	Turan Tovuz - Neftchi Baku	1:2 ✺
04.05.25	Neftchi Baku - Kapaz	2:2 ✺
28.04.25	Sumgayit - Neftchi Baku	2:2 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
23.04.25	Sabah - Neftchi Baku	1:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
19.04.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Neftchi Baku	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WTTTL
- Səbail FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
10.05.25	Səbail - Zira	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	Shamakhi - Səbail	1:1 ✺
27.04.25	Səbail - Araz Naxçıvan	1:1 ✺
19.04.25	Sabah - Səbail	3:2 ✺
11.04.25	Səbail - Qarabağ Agdam	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
16.03.25	Səbail - Neftchi Baku	1:2
19.10.24	Neftchi Baku - Səbail	3:1
10.08.24	Səbail - Neftchi Baku	1:1
18.05.24	Səbail - Neftchi Baku	0:3
15.03.24	Neftchi Baku - Səbail	3:0
20.10.23	Səbail - Neftchi Baku	2:4
14.08.23	Neftchi Baku - Səbail	1:1

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