What is the expert prediction for Newcastle United vs Manchester United?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Newcastle United vs Manchester United. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Newcastle United vs Manchester United Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Wednesday, March 04, 2026)

Match Info

Premier League - Round 29

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Bankes P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport PSL
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Arabia, beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Mix
Bangladesh	Toffee Live
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	CANAL+ Foot, CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Mix, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 1, NOW Premier League 2, Now Sports Premier League TV
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	SÝN Sport 2
India	Disney+ Hotstar, Star Sports Select 1
Indonesia	Vidio
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Astro Premier League, Astro Sports, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	HBO Max
Nepal	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport Premier League
Nigeria	SuperSport Action, SuperSport LaLiga, Supersport Maximo 1
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Pakistan	ARY ZAP
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	Setanta Sports
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	Hub Premier 1, Hub Premier 2, Hub Premier 8
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport PSL
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 4 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Amazon Prime Video, Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Mix, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 5
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Pershiy, Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	NBC Sports App, NBC, Peacock
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Sport 24


	Newcastle United		Manchester United

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.6	2.5
	2.45	3.75	2.55
	2.7	3.65	2.52
	2.72	3.75	2.57
	2.61	3.76	2.55	Watch
	2.5	3.5	2.5
	2.73	3.79	2.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.32)	3.69 ↓ (3.78)	2.54 ↓ (2.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
36.5%

Draw
25.9%

Manchester United
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

25%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

27.1%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Manchester United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Newcastle United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Manchester United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
24.6%	35.1%	40.4%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 55 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 14 - 25.5%). Man Utd will win (votes: 21 - 38.2%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 36.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Man Utd: 25.4% – 51%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 6 - 40%). Man Utd (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Man Utd (1.92) (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Man Utd (1.49) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

1X2, 1st Half - draw (2.40) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

DNB - Man Utd (1.87) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 4 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 7 - 29.2%). Man Utd (votes: 13 - 54.2%). Tie (votes: 4 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Ramsdale A. (G) 2. Trippier K. (C) 12. Thiaw M. 33. Burn D. 3. Hall L. 41. Ramsey J. 8. Tonali S. 7. Joelinton 20. Elanga A. 10. Gordon A. 11. Barnes H.	31. Lammens S. (G) 3. Mazraoui N. 15. Yoro L. 5. Maguire H. 23. Shaw L. 18. Casemiro 37. Mainoo K. 19. Mbeumo B. 8. Fernandes B. (C) 10. Cunha M. 30. Sesko B.
Substitutes
4. Botman S. 37. Murphy A. 23. Murphy J. 62. Neave S. 18. Osula W. 1. Pope N. (G) 61. Shahar L. 28. Willock J. 9. Wissa Y.	1. Bayindir A. (G) 2. Dalot D. 16. Diallo A. 39. Fletcher T. 26. Heaven A. 72. Kukonki G. 12. Malacia T. 25. Ugarte M. 11. Zirkzee J.
Coaches
Howe E.	Carrick M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', Ramsey J. 🟨,
37', Mbeumo B. 🟨,
38', Joelinton 🟨,
39', Shaw L. 🟨,
45+1', Ramsey J. 🟨,
45+6', 1 - 0, Gordon A. (Penalty Awarded),
45+9', 1 - 1, Casemiro ⚽, Fernandes B. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Barnes H. ↓, Willock J. ↑,
61', Shaw L. ↓, Ugarte M. ↑,
61', Casemiro ↓, Dalot D. ↑,
64', Mazraoui N. 🟨,
76', Mainoo K. ↓, Diallo A. ↑,
77', Mbeumo B. ↓, Zirkzee J. ↑,
80', Trippier K. 🟨,
84', Elanga A. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
85', Gordon A. ↓, Osula W. ↑,
85', Mazraoui N. ↓, Malacia T. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Osula W. ⚽, Trippier K. (A),
90+7', Tonali S. ↓, Botman S. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 13 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 3.

Newcastle has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Man Utd is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Newcastle may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Newcastle: Bruno Guimaraes (Muscle Injury) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Miley L. (Knee Injury) Schar F. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Man Utd: Dorgu P. (Hamstring Injury) Mount M. (Knock) de Ligt M. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Newcastle: Livramento V. (Hamstring Injury) Woltemade N. (Illness)

There are questionable in Man Utd: Aljofree S. (Injury) Martinez Li. (Calf Injury) Shaw L. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 27:35. (average 1.4:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:11. (average 1.6:1.2).

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Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Manchester Utd	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Newcastle	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English Premier League
28.02.26	Newcastle United - Everton	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
24.02.26	Newcastle United - Qarabağ Agdam	3:2 ✺
English Premier League
21.02.26	Manchester City - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Newcastle United	1:6 ✺
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWLWW
- Manchester United
English Premier League
01.03.26	Manchester United - Crystal Palace	2:1 ✺
23.02.26	Everton - Manchester United	0:1 ✺
10.02.26	West Ham United - Manchester United	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Manchester United - Tottenham Hotspur	2:0 ✺
01.02.26	Manchester United - Fulham	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
26.12.25	Manchester United - Newcastle United	1:0
13.04.25	Newcastle United - Manchester United	4:1
30.12.24	Manchester United - Newcastle United	0:2
15.05.24	Manchester United - Newcastle United	3:2
02.12.23	Newcastle United - Manchester United	1:0
English League Cup
01.11.23	Manchester United - Newcastle United	0:3
English Premier League
02.04.23	Newcastle United - Manchester United	2:0

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