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Current Win Probability
Newport County 30.6%
Draw 30.1%
Leyton Orient 39.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
31.1%
29.9%
39%
Our Initial ML Estimation
31.3%
30.1%
38.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Newport County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)
Leyton Orient has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+0.7%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leyton Orient than the current prediction. (-0.5%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
18.9%
24.3%
56.8%
Newport County - Leyton Orient Predictions
Users Predictions:
37 users predict this event. Newport will win (votes: 7 - 18.9%). Leyton Orient will win (votes: 21 - 56.8%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 24.3%). Confidence interval (95%) for Leyton Orient: 40.8% – 72.8%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
Newport has the most likely position - 18 (10.5%), has project points - 55, has currently - 23, has a very small chance of relegated (3%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (2%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Leyton Orient has the most likely position - 1 (67.69%), has project points - 95, has currently - 52, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (7%), has a good chance of promoted (93%), has a good chance of win league (68%).
This event has small quality12, importance39, small match rating26. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Newport won 2.
Newport is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Leyton Orient in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Leyton Orient could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.
Last 12 head-to-head matches Newport won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 13-18.
Including matches at home between the teams Newport won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 5-11.
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