Match Info

ENGLAND: FA CUP - 1/64-FINALS

Date: 27 November 2022, Sunday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)

Referee: Backhouse A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Denmark	Discovery+, Eurosport 2, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Eleven Sports 4
Sweden	Viaplay


	Newport County		Derby County

	1	X	2
	4	3.75	1.85	Watch
	3.7	3.3	1.88
	4.05	3.65	1.85
	3.6	3.6	1.94
	4	3.64	1.92
	3.9	3.25	1.85	Watch
	4.05	3.6	1.87	Watch
	3.8	3.55	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.89 ↓ (4.44)	3.54 ↓ (3.78)	1.88 ↑ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport County
24%

Draw
26.4%

Derby County
49.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.1%

24.7%

54.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.3%

23.8%

56.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Derby County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Derby County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
19%	0%	81%

Newport County - Derby County Predictions

Users Predictions: Derby County will win (17 of 21 users predict this - 80.95%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.15% – 97.75%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Replayed if draw.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Newport could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Derby have a series of guest games.

Derby will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport County
English EFL Trophy
22.11.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Newport County	3:1 ✺
English League Two
19.11.22	Newport County - Gillingham	2:0 ✺
12.11.22	Newport County - Stockport County	1:2 ✺
English League Cup
08.11.22	Leicester City - Newport County	3:0 ✺
English FA Cup
05.11.22	Newport County - Colchester United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLLW
- Derby County
English League One
18.11.22	Portsmouth - Derby County	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
15.11.22	Derby County - Torquay United	5:0 ✺
English League One
12.11.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Derby County	1:3 ✺
English League Cup
09.11.22	Liverpool - Derby County	1:0 penalties ✺
English FA Cup
06.11.22	Torquay United - Derby County	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TWWLT

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