Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 5

Date: 26 August 2023, Saturday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)

Referee: Corlett M. (Eng)


	Newport County		Sutton United

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	4
	1.92	3.4	4
	2.04	3.44	3.94
	2	3.2	3.25
	1.98	3.4	3.88	Watch
	2	3.25	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.2)	3.33 ↑ (3.3)	3.78 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport County
47.2%

Draw
28.1%

Sutton United
24.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Sutton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sutton United than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	13.3%	6.7%

Newport County - Sutton United Predictions

Users Predictions: Newport County will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Townsend N. (G) 5. Clarke J. 4. Delaney R. (C) 3. Lewis A. 19. McLoughlin S. 20. Charsley H. 17. Bennett S. 24. Wildig A. 8. Morris B. 30. Palmer-Houlden S. 7. Evans W.	1. Rose J. (G) 22. Kizzi J. 5. Goodliffe B. 4. Sowunmi O. 24. Milsom R. 7. Coley J. 10. Beautyman H. (C) 20. Kashket S. 11. Patrick O. 16. Clay C. 33. Angol L.
Substitutes
9. Bogle O. 33. Bondswell M. 26. Maxted J. (G) 2. Payne L. 15. Seberry J. 11. Waite J. 22. Wood N. D.	17. Bughail-Mellor D. 3. Hart S. 13. House B. (G) 23. Jackson R. 6. John L. 8. N'Guessan C. 40. O'Brien A.
Coaches
Coughlan G.	Gray M.

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Recently Sutton have a series of home games.

Newport will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Newport won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Newport won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport County
English League Two
19.08.23	Forest Green Rovers - Newport County	0:3 ✺
15.08.23	Crewe Alexandra - Newport County	4:2 ✺
12.08.23	Newport County - Doncaster Rovers	4:0 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.23	Newport County - Charlton Athletic	3:1 ✺
English League Two
05.08.23	Accrington Stanley - Newport County	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 WLWWL
- Sutton United
English League Two
19.08.23	Sutton United - AFC Wimbledon	0:3 ✺
15.08.23	Sutton United - Gillingham	0:1 ✺
12.08.23	Barrow - Sutton United	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.23	Sutton United - Cambridge United	3:2 penalties ✺
English League Two
05.08.23	Sutton United - Notts County	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
25.02.23	Newport County - Sutton United	0:2
30.07.22	Sutton United - Newport County	1:1
18.04.22	Sutton United - Newport County	1:0
07.12.21	Newport County - Sutton United	3:2

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