Match Info

WALES: CYMRU PREMIER - ROUND 17

Date: 28 November 2023, Tuesday


	Newtown		Pontypridd United

	1	X	2
	1.37	4.2	6.75
	1.38	4.5	7.5	Watch
	1.44	4.43	7.33
	1.44	4.43	7.33
	1.35	4.2	7.5
	1.4	4.35	7.3
	1.39	4.4	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.49)	4.36 ↑ (4.2)	7.3 ↑ (5.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newtown
66.2%

Draw
21.2%

Pontypridd United
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62%

22%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

16.9%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newtown has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Pontypridd United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newtown than the current prediction. (-18.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newtown that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontypridd United than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pontypridd United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Newtown - Pontypridd United Predictions

Users Predictions: Newtown will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wycherley A. (G) 17. Cowans H. 8. Evans R. 24. Hughes G. 18. Jones M. 3. Roberts C. 10. Robles L. 4. Sears R. 27. Smith D. 6. Sutton S. (C) 14. Williams A.	31. Ratcliffe G. (G) 2. Cummings L. 4. Davies K. 29. Green C. (C) 17. Hunt J. 30. Hutson C. 20. Jones O. 5. Margetson B. 14. Rees K. 8. Shephard C. 16. Wright J.
Substitutes
15. Boakye H. 23. Hartley Z. 11. Ismail Z. 5. Mills-Evans K. 7. Sharp O. 29. Taylor M. 13. Ussher S. (G)	9. Ahmun B. 13. Draper K. (G) 10. Lewis K. 12. Maertins J. 22. Pritchard O. 3. Vaughan E.
Coaches
Hughes C.	Stokes A.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: ) and 11 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: )).

Recent matches Newtown is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Pontypridd has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Pontypridd could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Newtown is absolute favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Newtown won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Newtown won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newtown AFC
Welsh Cymru Premier
19.11.23	Pen-y-Bont - Newtown	1:1 ✺
14.11.23	Aberystwyth Town - Newtown	0:1 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
11.11.23	Newtown - Colwyn Bay	1:2 penalties ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
04.11.23	Newtown - The New Saints	0:2 ✺
28.10.23	Newtown - Haverfordwest County	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TWLLT
- Pontypridd United
Welsh Cymru Premier
19.11.23	Pontypridd United - Colwyn Bay	0:3 ✺
04.11.23	Bala Town - Pontypridd United	0:0 ✺
28.10.23	Pontypridd United - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:3 ✺
21.10.23	Pontypridd United - Gap Connahs Quay	0:3 ✺
17.10.23	Barry Town United - Pontypridd United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
26.09.23	Pontypridd United - Newtown	0:1
16.12.22	Newtown - Pontypridd United	4:2
14.10.22	Pontypridd United - Newtown	1:4

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