Match Info

FA Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday

Location: USW Sports Park (Pontypridd)


	Pontypridd United		Colwyn Bay

	1	X	2
	4.85	3.95	1.52
	4.83	3.96	1.54
	20.10	7.59	1.11	Watch
	5	3.7	1.53
	5.67	3.8	1.51
	5	3.8	1.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.58 ↑ (6.43)	4.47 ↓ (4.54)	1.46 ↑ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontypridd United
12.7%

Draw
21.5%

Colwyn Bay
65.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.1%

20%

65.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.2%

21.4%

70.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontypridd United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

The chances for Colwyn Bay have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontypridd United than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colwyn Bay than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Pontypridd United - Colwyn Bay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Williams A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
54', 0 - 2, Williams A. ⚽,
66', 0 - 3, Williams A. ⚽,

Preview

Pontypridd is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Colwyn Bay has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Pontypridd may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Colwyn Bay is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Pontypridd won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Pontypridd won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontypridd United
Welsh Cymru South
05.12.25	Newport City - Pontypridd United	0:0 ✺
28.11.25	Pontypridd United - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:1 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
22.11.25	Treowen Stars - Pontypridd United	1:2 penalties ✺
Welsh Cymru South
15.11.25	Afan Lido - Pontypridd United	2:2 ✺
07.11.25	Pontypridd United - Cwmbran Celtic	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TWWTW
- Colwyn Bay
Welsh Cymru Premier
05.12.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Colwyn Bay	2:1 ✺
29.11.25	Colwyn Bay - Pen-y-Bont	5:4 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
22.11.25	Carmarthen Town - Colwyn Bay	1:3 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
15.11.25	Haverfordwest County - Colwyn Bay	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Colwyn Bay - Llanelli	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
06.04.24	Colwyn Bay - Pontypridd United	1:0
24.02.24	Pontypridd United - Colwyn Bay	4:0
13.01.24	Colwyn Bay - Pontypridd United	2:3
19.11.23	Pontypridd United - Colwyn Bay	0:3

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