Match Info

USL Championship - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday

Location: WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, NC)

Referee: Encarnación J. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	North Carolina		Rhode Island

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.58	3.15	2.58
	2.76	3.2	2.72
	2.52	3.36	2.61	Watch
	2.56	3	2.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.52)	3.18 ↓ (3.36)	2.63 ↑ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Carolina
35.6%

Draw
29.2%

Rhode Island
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

27.6%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

27.9%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Carolina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Rhode Island has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Carolina than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rhode Island than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

North Carolina - Rhode Island Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. North Carolina (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Semmle O. (G) 11. Burner P. 20. Donovan C. (C) 55. Hodge T. 66. Sundstrom F. 19. Al Qaq A. 44. Sommersall R. 15. Maldonado M. 6. Roberts T. 8. Pedro Becker 9. Anderson O.	1. Koke Vegas (C) 4. Bacharach Capdevila H. 24. Yao K. 32. Diop H. 20. Herivaux Z. 15. Nodarse F. 12. Holstad C. 3. Sanchez A. 11. Fuson N. 9. Williams J. 77. Shapiro-Thompson A.
Substitutes
5. Craig P. 16. Da Costa R. 23. Forbes J. 1. McGuire J. (G) 24. Mulqueen T. (G) 13. Perez L. 71. Quintanilla J. 10. Servania J.	7. Atkinson D. 10. Dikwa A. 22. Lee J. (G) 6. Mabika A. 21. Rodriguez M. 5. Stoneman G. 23. Ybarra M.
Coaches
Bradford J.	Smith K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Fuson N. 🟨,
36', Sommersall R. 🟨,
42', Maldonado M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
65', Herivaux Z. ↓, Atkinson D. ↑,
75', Holstad C. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
75', Shapiro-Thompson A. ↓, Dikwa A. ↑,
81', 0 - 1, Dikwa A. ⚽, Fuson N. (A),
85', Burner P. ↓, Servania J. ↑,
85', Sommersall R. ↓, Da Costa R. ↑,
87', Hodge T. ↓, Craig P. ↑,
90+3', 0 - 2, Dikwa A. ⚽,
90+4', Sanchez A. ↓, Mabika A. ↑,
90+4', Fuson N. ↓, Stoneman G. ↑,

Preview

In recent matches, North Carolina has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Rhode Island is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, North Carolina won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, North Carolina won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0. (average 0:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Carolina FC
USL Championship
01.11.25	North Carolina - Loudoun United	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Loudoun United - North Carolina	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	North Carolina - Rhode Island	0:0 ✺
10.10.25	North Carolina - Phoenix Rising	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Detroit City - North Carolina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WWTLL
- Rhode Island FC
USL Championship
02.11.25	Charleston Battery - Rhode Island	0:1 penalties ✺
25.10.25	New Mexico United - Rhode Island	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	North Carolina - Rhode Island	0:0 ✺
11.10.25	Rhode Island - Tampa Bay Rowdies	5:0 ✺
05.10.25	Rhode Island - Las Vegas Lights	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
18.10.25	North Carolina - Rhode Island	0:0
14.06.25	Rhode Island - North Carolina	2:1
27.07.24	Rhode Island - North Carolina	2:1
04.05.24	North Carolina - Rhode Island	0:0

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