Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Centreville Bank Stadium (Pawtucket, RI)

Referee: Koroleva K. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Usa	ESPN 2, ESPN App
Venezuela	Disney+


	Rhode Island		Las Vegas Lights

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.43	4.15	6.7
	1.42	4.37	8.02
	1.74	2.99	6.28	Watch
	1.47	4.28	6.37	Watch
	1.43	4.15	6.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.39)	3.99 ↓ (4.46)	6.77 ↓ (7.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rhode Island
62.6%

Draw
23.5%

Las Vegas Lights
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

20.7%

12.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.6%

19.5%

12%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rhode Island has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Las Vegas Lights has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rhode Island than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Rhode Island, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Las Vegas Lights than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Rhode Island - Las Vegas Lights Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Koke Vegas (C) 32. Diop H. 5. Stoneman G. 4. Bacharach Capdevila H. 24. Yao K. 12. Holstad C. 20. Herivaux Z. 11. Fuson N. 10. Dikwa A. 17. Kwizera J. 9. Williams J.	56. Arozarena R. (G) 23. Boudadi Y. 5. Gartig E. 4. Herbert A. 33. Nigro G. 21. Probo G. 22. McNamara T. (C) 9. Pickering N. 17. Leal P. 34. O'Driscoll R. 14. Rodriguez J.
Substitutes
7. Atkinson D. 22. Lee J. (G) 6. Mabika A. 21. Rodriguez M. 3. Sanchez A. 77. Shapiro-Thompson A. 23. Ybarra M.	1. Ammeter N. (G) 41. Covil V. 98. Gaines M. 3. Jones N. 6. Pearson C. 18. Singer J. 30. Stojanovic S.
Coaches
Smith K.	Rensing D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
41', Bacharach Capdevila H. 🟨,
45+3', O'Driscoll R. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Leal P. ↓, Stojanovic S. ↑,
47', 0 - 1, Stojanovic S. ⚽,
58', Herivaux Z. ↓, Shapiro-Thompson A. ↑,
58', Diop H. ↓, Rodriguez M. ↑,
62', Stojanovic S. 🟨,
63', Yao K. 🟨,
70', Dikwa A. ↓, Atkinson D. ↑,
74', Pickering N. ↓, Jones N. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Bacharach Capdevila H. ⚽, Rodriguez M. (A),
83', Holstad C. 🟨,
84', O'Driscoll R. ↓, Gaines M. ↑,
84', Nigro G. ↓, Covil V. ↑,
84', Yao K. ↓, Mabika A. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Fuson N. ⚽, Holstad C. (A),
90+6', 3 - 1, ⚽,
90+7', 🟨,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Las Vegas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Rhode Island is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Rhode Island won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rhode Island FC
USL Championship
26.09.25	El Paso Locomotive - Rhode Island	2:2 ✺
19.09.25	Miami - Rhode Island	0:1 ✺
13.09.25	Rhode Island - Indy Eleven	1:0 ✺
USL Cup
10.09.25	Rhode Island - Sacramento Republic	0:1 penalties ✺
USL Championship
06.09.25	Rhode Island - Louisville City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TWWLL
- Las Vegas Lights
USL Championship
28.09.25	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Las Vegas Lights	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Louisville City - Las Vegas Lights	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	Las Vegas Lights - Miami	0:0 ✺
05.09.25	Phoenix Rising - Las Vegas Lights	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Las Vegas Lights - Lexington	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
20.04.24	Las Vegas Lights - Rhode Island	1:2

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