Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 10 October 2025, Friday

Location: WakeMed Soccer Park (Cary, NC)

Referee: Garcia E. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, ESPN App, ESPN+, Paramount+


	North Carolina		Phoenix Rising

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.1	3.45	3.05
	2.29	3.72	2.91
	2.06	3.53	3.16	Watch
	2.19	3.42	3.02	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.02)	3.53 ↑ (3.51)	3.04 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

North Carolina
43%

Draw
26.3%

Phoenix Rising
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

26.5%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.3%

25.9%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

North Carolina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Phoenix Rising has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for North Carolina than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Phoenix Rising than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

North Carolina - Phoenix Rising Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Semmle O. (G) 19. Al Qaq A. 66. Sundstrom F. 20. Donovan C. 5. Craig P. (C) 6. Roberts T. 13. Perez L. 44. Sommersall R. 15. Maldonado M. 8. Pedro Becker 16. Da Costa R.	1. Rakovsky P. (G) 51. Essengue A. 4. Mar Boye P. (C) 33. Czichos R. 87. Flores D. 20. Moursou J. 17. Scearce J. 2. Smith C. 10. Avayevu H. 12. Dennis C. 22. Johnson D.
Substitutes
9. Anderson O. 11. Burner P. 25. Fitzgerald A. (G) 55. Hodge T. 1. McGuire J. (G) 24. Mulqueen T. (G) 71. Quintanilla J. 27. Washington B.	91. Cabral R. 80. Emmers X. 23. Flood R. 13. Henry T. (G) 8. Okello N. 88. Rizzo P. 9. Sacko I.
Coaches
Bradford J.	Kah P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', Flores D. 🟨,
35', 0 - 1, Dennis C. ⚽,
38', Johnson D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Roberts T. ↓, Anderson O. ↑,
55', Donovan C. 🟨,
61', 0 - 2, Smith C. ⚽, Johnson D. (A),
64', Craig P. ↓, Burner P. ↑,
70', Johnson D. ↓, Sacko I. ↑,
85', Sommersall R. ↓, Quintanilla J. ↑,
85', Flores D. ↓, Okello N. ↑,
86', Avayevu H. ↓, Emmers X. ↑,
90+3', Al Qaq A. ↓, Hodge T. ↑,

Preview

North Carolina is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

North Carolina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Phoenix Rising has had a series of home games.

North Carolina could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, North Carolina won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, North Carolina won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

North Carolina - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 46.15%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- North Carolina FC
USL Championship
04.10.25	Detroit City - North Carolina	2:0 ✺
01.10.25	Birmingham Legion - North Carolina	1:1 ✺
26.09.25	North Carolina - Miami	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - North Carolina	2:2 ✺
12.09.25	North Carolina - El Paso Locomotive	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LTWTW
- Phoenix Rising
USL Championship
04.10.25	Phoenix Rising - New Mexico United	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Phoenix Rising - Oakland Roots	3:3 ✺
20.09.25	Phoenix Rising - Loudoun United	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Sacramento Republic - Phoenix Rising	2:2 ✺
05.09.25	Phoenix Rising - Las Vegas Lights	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LTTTT

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
24.08.24	Phoenix Rising - North Carolina	0:0
US Open Cup
08.05.24	North Carolina - Phoenix Rising	1:2 ET

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