Match Info

Championship - Round 18

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Carrow Road (Norwich)

Referee: Smith L. (Eng)


	Norwich City		Queens Park Rangers

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.5	2.65	Watch
	2.52	3.55	2.67	Watch
	2.52	3.65	2.75
	2.36	3.61	2.79	Watch
	2.56	3.58	2.77	Watch
	2.5	3.6	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.36)	3.58 ↓ (3.61)	2.72 ↓ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Norwich City
38.3%

Draw
26.6%

Queens Park Rangers
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

26.2%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

26.5%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Norwich City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Queens Park Rangers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Norwich City than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Queens Park Rangers than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
59.1%	22.7%	18.2%

Norwich City - Queens Park Rangers Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Norwich will win (votes: 13 - 59.1%). QPR will win (votes: 4 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 22.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Norwich: 38.6% – 79.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Norwich (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Norwich (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Norwich (votes: 6 - 75%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kovacevic V. (G) 3. Stacey J. 15. McConville R. 6. Darling H. 35. Fisher K. 7. Mattsson P. 23. McLean K. (C) 18. Forson A. 11. Marcondes E. 29. Schwartau O. 9. Sargent J.	1. Nardi P. (G) 27. Mbengue A. S. 3. Dunne J. (C) 5. Cook S. 8. Field S. 40. Varane J. 24. Madsen N. 7. Dembele K. 14. Saito K. 10. Chair I. 16. Burrell R.
Substitutes
48. Adelusi T. 4. Duffy S. 32. Grimshaw D. (G) 10. Jurasek M. 30. Kvistgaarden M. 5. Medic J. 46. Mundle Smith E. 42. Springett T. 16. Wright J.	6. Clarke-Salter J. 12. Frey M. 15. Hayden I. 22. Kone R. 21. Morgan K. 18. Norrington-Davies R. 17. Poku K. 11. Smyth P. 13. Walsh J. (G)
Coaches
Clement P.	Stephan J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Marcondes E. ⚽, McConville R. (A),
11', 1 - 1, Burrell R. ⚽, Field S. (A),
33', 2 - 1, Mbengue A. S. (Own goal),
36', 3 - 1, Forson A. ⚽, Sargent J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dembele K. ↓, Frey M. ↑,
46', Saito K. ↓, Smyth P. ↑,
46', Field S. ↓, Norrington-Davies R. ↑,
56', Stacey J. ↓, Duffy S. ↑,
57', Burrell R. 🟨,
62', Varane J. ↓, Hayden I. ↑,
66', Forson A. ↓, Mundle Smith E. ↑,
66', Marcondes E. ↓, Wright J. ↑,
70', Mbengue A. S. ↓, Morgan K. ↑,
76', McLean K. 🟨,
80', Duffy S. 🟨,
86', Smyth P. 🟨,
88', Schwartau O. ↓, Jurasek M. ↑,
88', Sargent J. ↓, Kvistgaarden M. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Norwich won 2.

Norwich has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

QPR has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Norwich may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Norwich: Chrisene B. (Hamstring Injury) Cordoba J. (Muscle Injury) Crnac A. (Knee Injury) Diallo P. A. (Muscle Injury) Forsyth G. (Knee Injury) Gibbs L. (Hamstring Injury) Mahovo L. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in QPR: Larkeche Z. (Knee Injury) Walsh J. (Wrist Injury)

There are questionable in QPR: Hamer B. (Injury) Vale H. (Inactive)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Norwich won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 24:16. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Norwich won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:3. (average 1.8:0.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Norwich City
English League Championship
25.11.25	Norwich City - Oxford United	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Birmingham City - Norwich City	4:1 ✺
08.11.25	Norwich City - Leicester City	1:2 ✺
05.11.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Norwich City	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Norwich City - Hull City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 TLLTL
- Queens Park Rangers
English League Championship
26.11.25	Blackburn Rovers - Queens Park Rangers	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Queens Park Rangers - Hull City	3:2 ✺
08.11.25	Sheffield United - Queens Park Rangers	0:0 ✺
05.11.25	Queens Park Rangers - Southampton	1:2 ✺
01.11.25	Queens Park Rangers - Ipswich Town	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
29.12.24	Norwich City - Queens Park Rangers	1:1
07.12.24	Queens Park Rangers - Norwich City	3:0
10.02.24	Queens Park Rangers - Norwich City	2:2
25.11.23	Norwich City - Queens Park Rangers	1:0
English League Cup
16.08.23	Queens Park Rangers - Norwich City	0:1
English League Championship
19.04.23	Queens Park Rangers - Norwich City	1:1
02.11.22	Norwich City - Queens Park Rangers	0:0

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