Match Info

League Two - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 10 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Meadow Lane (Nottingham)

Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Notts County		AFC Wimbledon

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.5	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.25
	2.2	3.1	3.5	Watch
	2.23	3.17	3.56
	2.26	3.05	3.38	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.3
	2.22	3.24	3.41	Watch
	2.2	3.1	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (2.16)	3.15 ↓ (3.2)	3.43 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Notts County
42.6%

Draw
29.9%

AFC Wimbledon
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

29.4%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

29.5%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Notts County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

AFC Wimbledon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Notts County than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Notts County - AFC Wimbledon Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Notts County will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Notts County: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Notts County will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bass A. (G) 28. Macari L. 5. Platt M. 4. Bedeau J. 8. Austin S. 33. Abbott G. 18. Palmer M. 10. Jones J. 11. Grant C. 29. Jatta A. 17. McGoldrick D.	1. Goodman O. (G) 26. Harbottle R. 31. Lewis J. 6. Johnson R. 7. Tilley J. 4. Reeves J. 21. Hippolyte M. 12. Smith A. 11. Neufville J. 18. Browne M. 14. Stevens M.
Substitutes
22. Edwards C. 36. Jarvis W. 3. McDonald R. 30. Miller T. (G) 20. Robertson S. 7. Traore M. 16. Whitaker C.	9. Bugiel O. 3. Furlong J. 10. Kelly J. 8. Maycock C. 33. Ogundere I. 29. Sasu A. 22. Ward L. (G)
Coaches
Maynard S.	Jackson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Hippolyte M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Stevens M. ↓, Bugiel O. ↑,
57', Johnson R. ↓, Ogundere I. ↑,
59', 0 - 1, Harbottle R. ⚽,
64', Neufville J. 🟨,
65', Macari L. 🟨,
72', Austin S. ↓, Jarvis W. ↑,
73', Browne M. ↓, Kelly J. ↑,
74', Hippolyte M. ↓, Maycock C. ↑,
76', Tilley J. 🟨,
77', Macari L. ↓, McDonald R. ↑,
84', Bugiel O. 🟨,
90', Tilley J. ↓, Furlong J. ↑,
90+3', McGoldrick D. ↓, Traore M. ↑,
90+5', Jatta A. 🟥,
90+6', Jones J. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Notts County is Qualified for League Two (Play Offs Semi~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Notts County won 1.

Notts County has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Wimbledon's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Notts County might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Notts County: Ness L. (Hamstring Injury) Robertson S. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Notts County won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:12. (average 0.7:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Notts County won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.3:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Notts County - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 43.61%, but this team recently wins 23% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Notts County
English League Two
03.05.25	Notts County - Doncaster Rovers	1:2 ✺
26.04.25	Harrogate Town - Notts County	1:3 ✺
21.04.25	Notts County - Cheltenham Town	1:2 ✺
17.04.25	Bradford City - Notts County	1:1 ✺
11.04.25	Notts County - Salford City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWLTL
- AFC Wimbledon
English League Two
03.05.25	Grimsby Town - AFC Wimbledon	0:1 ✺
26.04.25	AFC Wimbledon - Port Vale	0:2 ✺
21.04.25	Gillingham - AFC Wimbledon	1:0 ✺
18.04.25	AFC Wimbledon - Chesterfield	0:0 ✺
12.04.25	Doncaster Rovers - AFC Wimbledon	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WLLTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
08.03.25	AFC Wimbledon - Notts County	2:0
19.10.24	Notts County - AFC Wimbledon	1:0
09.03.24	Notts County - AFC Wimbledon	0:2
25.11.23	AFC Wimbledon - Notts County	4:2
23.01.16	Notts County - AFC Wimbledon	0:2
19.09.15	AFC Wimbledon - Notts County	2:1

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