Match Info

League Two - Round 40

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Exercise Stadium (Harrogate)

Referee: Finnie W. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Harrogate Town		Notts County

	1	X	2
	4	3.6	1.79	Watch
	3.95	3.55	1.85	Watch
	3.92	3.79	1.9
	3.97	3.54	1.87	Watch
	3.75	3.4	1.85
	4.01	3.61	1.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.93 ↓ (4.47)	3.58 ↓ (3.6)	1.85 ↑ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Harrogate Town
23.7%

Draw
26%

Notts County
50.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.5%

25.5%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.9%

24.8%

55.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Harrogate Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Notts County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Harrogate Town than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Notts County than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Notts County could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	10.3%	82.1%

Harrogate Town - Notts County Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Harrogate (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Notts County will win (32 of 39 users predict this - 82.05%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.01% – 94.09%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Notts County will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Harrogate (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Notts County (votes: 5 - 83.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Gray H. (G) 16. Headman C. 31. Heffernan C. 30. Gibson L. 3. Slater J. 8. Morris B. 4. Evans J. (C) 21. Taylor E. 17. Sutton L. 22. Smith R. 18. Muldoon J.	31. Belshaw J. (G) 28. Macari L. 12. Ness L. 4. Bedeau J. 47. Bennetts K. 18. Palmer M. (C) 14. Iorpenda T. 10. Jones J. 27. Tangen H. 29. Jatta A. 19. Dennis M.
Substitutes
12. Acquah E. 38. Brenan T. 24. Cass L. 11. Duke-McKenna S. 20. Faulkner B. 7. Thomson G. 33. Waller S. (G)	23. Browne L. 22. Enoru B. 11. Grant C. 21. Griffiths H. (G) 53. Iwunze H. 16. Luker J. 39. Ndlovu L.
Coaches
Weaver S.	Paterson M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Jatta A. ⚽, Iorpenda T. (A),
45', Tangen H. ↓, Grant C. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Sutton L. ↓, Brenan T. ↑,
61', Taylor E. ↓, Duke-McKenna S. ↑,
62', Brenan T. 🟨,
71', Dennis M. ↓, Ndlovu L. ↑,
71', Muldoon J. ↓, Acquah E. ↑,
79', 0 - 2, Jatta A. ⚽, Jones J. (A),
89', Bennetts K. ↓, Browne L. ↑,
89', Jones J. ↓, Luker J. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Harrogate won 1.

Recent form of Harrogate has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Notts County's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Notts County may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Notts County is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Harrogate: Fox B. (Inactive) Marsh A. (Inactive) Oxley M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Notts County: Norburn O. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Harrogate: Bradbury T. (Injury) McCoulsky S. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Notts County: McDonald R. (Inactive) Platt M. (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Harrogate won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Harrogate won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1.8:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Notts County - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 53.98%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Harrogate Town
English League Two
21.03.26	Oldham Athletic - Harrogate Town	1:0 ✺
17.03.26	Tranmere Rovers - Harrogate Town	0:3 ✺
14.03.26	Harrogate Town - Salford City	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Milton Keynes Dons - Harrogate Town	4:1 ✺
27.02.26	Harrogate Town - Cheltenham Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWLLT
- Notts County
English League Two
24.03.26	Oldham Athletic - Notts County	3:0 ✺
21.03.26	Notts County - Cheltenham Town	5:2 ✺
17.03.26	Accrington Stanley - Notts County	0:4 ✺
14.03.26	Notts County - Chesterfield	2:3 ✺
07.03.26	Walsall - Notts County	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
15.11.25	Notts County - Harrogate Town	1:1
26.04.25	Harrogate Town - Notts County	1:3
26.10.24	Notts County - Harrogate Town	1:0
06.04.24	Notts County - Harrogate Town	3:0
16.12.23	Harrogate Town - Notts County	3:1
English FA Trophy
22.09.20	Notts County - Harrogate Town	0:1
English National League
02.08.20	Harrogate Town - Notts County	3:1

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