Match Info

Date: 15 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Stadio San Vito (Cosenza)

Referee: Baroni N. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Nuova Cosenza		Genoa

	1	X	2
	6.5	4	1.53	Watch
	6	3.8	1.55
	6.25	3.75	1.55
	6	3.8	1.53
	7.07	3.88	1.58
	5.25	3.6	1.65
	6.2	3.8	1.57	Watch
	5.8	3.9	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.13 ↑ (4.3)	3.82 ↑ (3.5)	1.56 ↓ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nuova Cosenza
15.3%

Draw
24.6%

Genoa
60.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.8%

26.8%

51.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.2%

26.1%

52.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nuova Cosenza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nuova Cosenza's form might have worsened.

Genoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Genoa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nuova Cosenza than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nuova Cosenza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Genoa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	10%	65%

Nuova Cosenza - Genoa Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Cosenza will win (votes: 5 - 25%). Genoa will win (votes: 13 - 65%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Genoa: 44.1% – 85.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Cosenza has the most likely position - 18 (9.28%), has project points - 44, has currently - 11, has a chance of relegated (36%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (12%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Genoa has the most likely position - 1 (17.09%), has project points - 64, has currently - 15, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (51%), has a chance of promoted (42%), has a chance of win league (17%).

This event has quality 31, importance 44, match rating 37. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Cosenza could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Genoa is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nuova Cosenza
Italian Serie B
08.10.22	Reggina - Nuova Cosenza	3:0 ✺
30.09.22	Nuova Cosenza - Como	3:1 ✺
17.09.22	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Nuova Cosenza	1:1 ✺
10.09.22	Nuova Cosenza - Bari	0:1 ✺
03.09.22	Ternana - Nuova Cosenza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWTLT
- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie B
07.10.22	Genoa - Cagliari	0:0 ✺
01.10.22	SPAL - Genoa	0:2 ✺
17.09.22	Genoa - Modena	1:0 ✺
09.09.22	Palermo - Genoa	1:0 ✺
03.09.22	Genoa - Parma	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TWWLT

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