Match Info

Serie A - Round 20

Date: 12 January 2026, Monday

Location: Stadio Luigi Ferraris (Genoa)

Referee: La Penna F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Genoa		Cagliari

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.9	4.1	Watch
	2.08	2.98	4.25
	2.14	2.99	4.08	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.9
	2.22	3.09	4.14
	2.16	2.85	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (2.11)	2.95 ↓ (2.98)	4.11 ↓ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Genoa
44.6%

Draw
32.2%

Cagliari
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

31.9%

23%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

31.4%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Genoa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Cagliari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	46.4%	16.1%

Genoa - Cagliari Predictions

Users Predictions: 56 users predict this event. Genoa will win (votes: 21 - 37.5%). Cagliari will win (votes: 9 - 16.1%). It will Tie (votes: 26 - 46.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 33.3% – 59.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Genoa (votes: 10 - 40%). Tie (votes: 15 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Cagliari (1.71) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Genoa (1.81) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 29 Selected Experts predict this event. Genoa (votes: 11 - 37.9%). Cagliari (votes: 3 - 10.3%). Tie (votes: 15 - 51.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leali N. (G) 27. Marcandalli A. 5. Ostigard L. 22. Vasquez J. (C) 15. Norton-Cuffy B. 17. Malinovskyi R. 32. Frendrup M. 77. Ellertsson M. E. 3. Martin A. 9. Vitinha 29. Colombo L.	1. Caprile E. (C) 2. Palestra M. 15. Rodriguez J. 6. Luperto S. 33. Obert A. 8. Adopo M. 16. Prati M. 4. Mazzitelli L. 77. Luvumbo Z. 9. Kilicsoy S. 94. Esposito Se.
Substitutes
30. Cuenca Martinez H. F. 21. Ekhator J. 40. Fini S. 10. Junior Messias 35. Lysionok E. (G) 73. Masini P. 86. Nuredini J. 34. Otoa S. 20. Sabelli S. 39. Sommariva D. (G) 8. Stanciu N. 2. Thorsby M. 76. Venturino L.	29. Borrelli G. 21. Cavuoti N. 24. Ciocci G. (G) 18. Di Pardo A. 10. Gaetano G. 3. Idrissi R. 27. Liteta J. 30. Pavoletti L. 32. Pedro J. 23. Pintus N. 12. Sherri A. (G) 37. Trepy Y. 28. Zappa G.
Coaches
De Rossi D.	Pisacane F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Colombo L. ⚽, Malinovskyi R. (A),
15', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
30', Frendrup M. 🟨,
42', Obert A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Norton-Cuffy B. ↓, Masini P. ↑,
46', Rodriguez J. ↓, Idrissi R. ↑,
52', Masini P. 🟨,
54', Mazzitelli L. 🟨,
58', Adopo M. 🟨,
62', Luvumbo Z. ↓, Gaetano G. ↑,
69', Esposito Se. ↓, Borrelli G. ↑,
69', Mazzitelli L. ↓, Zappa G. ↑,
71', Luperto S. 🟨,
74', Malinovskyi R. ↓, Thorsby M. ↑,
74', Colombo L. ↓, Ekhator J. ↑,
75', 2 - 0, Frendrup M. ⚽,
78', 3 - 0, Ostigard L. ⚽, Martin A. (A),
82', Ellertsson M. E. ↓, Sabelli S. ↑,
82', Vitinha ↓, Junior Messias ↑,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 17 and 15)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Genoa won 1.

Genoa has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Cagliari has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Cagliari may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Genoa might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Genoa: Ekuban C. (Muscle Injury) Onana J. (International duty)

There will not play in Cagliari: Belotti A. (Knee Injury) Felici M. (Knee Injury) Folorunsho M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Genoa: Cornet M. (Injury) Gronbaek A. (Injury) Junior Messias (Calf Injury) Siegrist B. (Finger Injury)

There are questionable in Cagliari: Deiola A. (Thigh Injury) Pedro J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Genoa won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 30:23. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Genoa won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:5. (average 1.6:0.5).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Cagliari: 0.38% Genoa: 0.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Cagliari	5	4	0	1	5:2	3	12
19	Genoa	5	0	1	4	3:10	-7	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie A
08.01.26	Milan - Genoa	1:1 ✺
03.01.26	Genoa - Pisa	1:1 ✺
29.12.25	Roma - Genoa	3:1 ✺
21.12.25	Genoa - Atalanta	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Genoa - Inter Milan	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TTLLL
- Cagliari Calcio
Italian Serie A
08.01.26	Cremonese - Cagliari	2:2 ✺
02.01.26	Cagliari - Milan	0:1 ✺
27.12.25	Torino - Cagliari	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	Cagliari - Pisa	2:2 ✺
13.12.25	Atalanta - Cagliari	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
22.11.25	Cagliari - Genoa	3:3
07.03.25	Cagliari - Genoa	1:1
24.11.24	Genoa - Cagliari	2:2
29.04.24	Genoa - Cagliari	3:0
05.11.23	Cagliari - Genoa	2:1
Italian Serie B
01.03.23	Cagliari - Genoa	0:0
07.10.22	Genoa - Cagliari	0:0

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