Match Info

BRAZIL: Pernambucano - Round 7

Date: 9 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT


	Náutico Capibaribe		Afogados da Ingazeira

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.4	7.5
	1.33	4.4	8
	1.35	4.51	9.17
	1.34	4.37	8.67	Watch
	1.35	4.2	9
	1.33	4.45	9.55
	1.33	4.4	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.41)	4.39 ↑ (4.01)	8.56 ↑ (6.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
68.5%

Draw
20.8%

Afogados da Ingazeira
10.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.2%

22.6%

13.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.9%

21.4%

12.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Afogados da Ingazeira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Afogados da Ingazeira than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Náutico Capibaribe - Afogados da Ingazeira Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wellerson R. (G) 18. Auremir 80. Bruno Mezenga (C) 16. Felipe Santana 23. Igor Fernandes 15. Kayon 17. Marcos Ytalo 14. Odivan 34. Otusanya O. 25. Sousa 22. Wenderson	1. Danilo Dantas (G) 7. Claudio Caca-Rato 5. Dede 2. Denner 11. Filipe Eduardo 4. Kayk 10. Leozinho 8. Pedro Henrique 9. Rodrigo (C) 3. Vinicius 6. Weslley
Substitutes
35. de Sousa Oliveira T. 10. Geovane 36. Halan 7. Helio Borges 5. Igor Pereira 13. Indio 27. Kauan Maranhao 39. Leal R. 32. Leo (G) 8. Marco Antonio 20. Patrick Allan 37. Vini	19. Acaua 14. Carlos Eduardo 25. Endrio (G) 12. Erik Silva (G) 15. Gilsinho 16. Marcelo 13. Matheus Oliveira 18. Rai 17. Stuart

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Kayon ⚽,
32', Filipe Eduardo ↓, Acaua ↑,
42', Acaua 🟨,
42', Vinicius 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Bruno Mezenga ↓, Helio Borges ↑,
46', Wenderson ↓, Patrick Allan ↑,
46', Pedro Henrique ↓, Marcelo ↑,
46', Helio Borges 🟨,
54', Claudio Caca-Rato 🟨,
59', 2 - 0, Helio Borges ⚽,
64', Felipe Santana 🟨,
67', Kayon ↓, Marco Antonio ↑,
75', Otusanya O. ↓, Kauan Maranhao ↑,
84', 3 - 0, Patrick Allan ⚽,
86', Denner 🟨,
86', Denner ↓, Rai ↑,
87', Igor Fernandes ↓, de Sousa Oliveira T. ↑,
88', 4 - 0, Marcos Ytalo ⚽,
90+1', Acaua ↓, Stuart ↑,
90+1', Leozinho ↓, Cadu ↑,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9 in the zone Relegation ~ Pernambucano).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Náutico won 2.

Recent matches Náutico is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Afogados is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Afogados could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Náutico is absolute favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Náutico won 6 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 16:7 (average 1.8:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Náutico won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10:4 (average 1.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
05.02.25	Confiança - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
02.02.25	Retrô Brasil - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0 ✺
30.01.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Maguary	2:0 ✺
25.01.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Santa Cruz Recife	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
22.01.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLWWW
- Afogados da Ingazeira FC
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
05.02.25	Decisão - Afogados da Ingazeira	1:1 ✺
29.01.25	Afogados da Ingazeira - Central SC	1:1 ✺
26.01.25	Afogados da Ingazeira - Petrolina	1:1 ✺
19.01.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Afogados da Ingazeira	2:0 ✺
15.01.25	Retrô Brasil - Afogados da Ingazeira	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
01.03.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Afogados da Ingazeira	2:0
07.02.23	Afogados da Ingazeira - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1
27.02.22	Afogados da Ingazeira - Náutico Capibaribe	2:2
26.04.21	Náutico Capibaribe - Afogados da Ingazeira	2:2
10.02.20	Náutico Capibaribe - Afogados da Ingazeira	1:1
03.04.19	Náutico Capibaribe - Afogados da Ingazeira	2:0
24.02.19	Afogados da Ingazeira - Náutico Capibaribe	1:3

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