Match Info

Date: 23 October 2022, Sunday

Location: Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho (Recife)

Referee: Ferreira J. (Bra)


	Náutico Capibaribe		Grêmio

	1	X	2
				Watch
	7.25	4.5	1.37
	8	4.3	1.35
	7.4	4.5	1.36
	9.43	4.91	1.37
	8.5	4.33	1.36
	8.4	4.65	1.36	Watch
	7.6	4.6	1.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	8.08 ↑ (4.83)	4.54 ↑ (3.29)	1.36 ↓ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
11.5%

Draw
20.4%

Grêmio
68.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.1%

28%

53%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.8%

27.5%

53.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Náutico Capibaribe's form might have worsened.

Grêmio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Grêmio's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Náutico Capibaribe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (-14.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Grêmio, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
48%	8%	44%

Náutico Capibaribe - Grêmio Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Náutico will win (votes: 12 - 48%). Grêmio will win (votes: 11 - 44%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Náutico: 28.4% – 67.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

Náutico is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Grêmio is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Náutico could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Grêmio is certain favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Náutico won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 0-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Náutico won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
14.10.22	Grêmio Novorizontino - Náutico Capibaribe	6:0 ✺
07.10.22	Criciúma - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
04.10.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Tombense	4:3 ✺
28.09.22	Sport Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
23.09.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Sampaio Corrêa	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLWLL
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Serie B
16.10.22	Grêmio - Bahia	1:1 ✺
08.10.22	Londrina - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
04.10.22	Grêmio - CS Alagoano	2:0 ✺
30.09.22	Sampaio Corrêa - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
20.09.22	Grêmio - Sport Recife	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
08.07.22	Grêmio - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
11.09.13	Náutico Capibaribe - Grêmio	0:2
26.05.13	Grêmio - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0
13.09.12	Grêmio - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0
17.06.12	Náutico Capibaribe - Grêmio	0:0

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