Match Info

J2 League - Round 25

Date: 9 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Resonac Dome Oita (Oita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Oita Trinita		Kataller Toyama

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.2	4	Watch
	2.1	2.9	3.3
	2.1	3	3.45	Watch
	2.02	3.15	4.5
	3.67	3.49	1.96	Watch
	2.2	2.88	3.3
	2.18	3.02	3.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.11)	3.09 ↓ (3.13)	3.42 ↓ (3.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oita Trinita
41.2%

Draw
30.9%

Kataller Toyama
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

29.6%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

29.3%

26.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oita Trinita has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Kataller Toyama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oita Trinita than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kataller Toyama than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	66.7%	16.7%

Oita Trinita - Kataller Toyama Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Oita Trinita will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Kataller Toyama will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 40% – 93.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Hamada T. (G) 30. Tone I. 31. Matheus Pereira 3. Derlan 44. Yoshida M. 25. Sakakibara K. 38. Amagasa T. 29. Utsumoto S. 9. Arima K. 21. Ayukawa S. 11. Gleyson	1. Tagawa T. (G) 4. Kamiyama K. 5. Imase J. 3. Kagawa Y. 48. Ueda K. 16. Sueki H. 34. Takenaka G. 18. Ito T. 8. Matsuoka D. 33. Takahashi Y. 39. Furukawa M.
Substitutes
34. Fujiwara Y. 14. Ikeda R. 13. Isa K. 6. Misao Y. 18. Nodake J. 8. Ochiai R. 24. Sato S. (G) 16. Shige T. 15. Yashiki Y.	88. Hama T. 42. Hirao T. (G) 25. Kameda A. 6. Sera S. 22. Shiina N. 58. Take H. 40. Takeuchi Y. 14. Ura J. 27. Yoshihira T.
Coaches
Katanosaka T.	Adachi R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Matsuoka D. ⚽, Kagawa Y. (A),
16', 1 - 1, Gleyson ⚽, Utsumoto S. (A),
41', Ayukawa S. 🟨,
45+2', 2 - 1, Tone I. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Takenaka G. 🟨,
53', 2 - 2, Furukawa M. ⚽, Takenaka G. (A),
60', Furukawa M. ↓, Ura J. ↑,
60', Matsuoka D. ↓, Yoshihira T. ↑,
60', Takenaka G. ↓, Shiina N. ↑,
67', Ayukawa S. ↓, Ochiai R. ↑,
67', Gleyson ↓, Isa K. ↑,
71', Tone I. ↓, Fujiwara Y. ↑,
71', Sakakibara K. ↓, Nodake J. ↑,
73', Ueda K. ↓, Sera S. ↑,
78', Sueki H. ↓, Hama T. ↑,
83', Derlan 🟨,
85', Utsumoto S. ↓, Misao Y. ↑,
88', Matheus Pereira 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J3 League).

Oita Trinita has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Kataller Toyama has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Oita Trinita could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Oita Trinita won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Oita Trinita won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Oita Trinita - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 43.98%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oita Trinita
Japan J2 League
02.08.25	Oita Trinita - Imabari	0:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
16.07.25	Tokyo - Oita Trinita	2:0 ✺
Japan J2 League
12.07.25	Sagan Tosu - Oita Trinita	2:1 ✺
05.07.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Oita Trinita	1:0 ✺
28.06.25	Oita Trinita - Omiya Ardija	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLLT
- Kataller Toyama
Japan J2 League
02.08.25	Kataller Toyama - Omiya Ardija	0:2 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
16.07.25	Machida Zelvia - Kataller Toyama	2:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
12.07.25	Mito HollyHock - Kataller Toyama	3:0 ✺
05.07.25	Vegalta Sendai - Kataller Toyama	0:1 ✺
28.06.25	Kataller Toyama - JEF United Chiba	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
11.05.25	Kataller Toyama - Oita Trinita	1:1
14.09.14	Kataller Toyama - Oita Trinita	1:1
26.04.14	Oita Trinita - Kataller Toyama	3:0

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