Match Info

J2 League - Round 22

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Peace Stadium (Nagasaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	V-Varen Nagasaki		Oita Trinita

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.9	5	Watch
	1.65	3.5	4.5
	1.55	4.05	5.15	Watch
	1.6	4.24	5.6
				Watch
	1.7	3.4	4.6
	1.55	3.98	5.32	Watch
	1.72	3.55	4.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.73)	3.8 ↑ (3.3)	4.93 ↑ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

V-Varen Nagasaki
56.9%

Draw
24.3%

Oita Trinita
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

27.3%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.1%

26.2%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

V-Varen Nagasaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Oita Trinita has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oita Trinita than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	9.1%	9.1%

V Varen Nagasaki - Oita Trinita Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Oita Trinita (2.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: V-Varen Nagasaki will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki (votes: 1 - 50%). Oita Trinita (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Goto M. (G) 48. Teruyama H. 29. Arai I. 44. Egawa Y. 23. Yoneda S. 5. Yamaguchi H. 34. Matsumoto T. 8. Masuyama A. 10. Matheus Jesus 19. Sawada T. 9. Juanma Delgado	22. Mun Kyung-Gun (G) 31. Matheus Pereira 34. Fujiwara Y. 3. Derlan 16. Shige T. 5. Nakagawa H. 38. Amagasa T. 29. Utsumoto S. 9. Arima K. 21. Ayukawa S. 13. Isa K.
Substitutes
6. Abe T. 31. Harada G. (G) 11. Junio E. 33. Kasayanagi T. 25. Kushibiki K. 7. Marcos Guilherme 3. Sekiguchi M. 17. Takahata K. 18. Yamasaki R.	32. Hamada T. (G) 14. Ikeda R. 2. Kagawa Y. 19. Kozakai A. 27. Matsuo Y. 18. Nodake J. 10. Nomura N. 4. Satsukawa A. 15. Yashiki Y.
Coaches
Takagi T.	Katanosaka T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Matheus Pereira 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Matsumoto T. ↓, Abe T. ↑,
59', Ayukawa S. ↓, Nomura N. ↑,
63', Sawada T. ↓, Kasayanagi T. ↑,
63', Juanma Delgado ↓, Junio E. ↑,
67', Nakagawa H. ↓, Nodake J. ↑,
67', Isa K. ↓, Kozakai A. ↑,
74', 1 - 0, Yoneda S. ⚽,
77', Masuyama A. ↓, Takahata K. ↑,
81', Shige T. ↓, Matsuo Y. ↑,
81', Utsumoto S. ↓, Satsukawa A. ↑,
89', Teruyama H. ↓, Kushibiki K. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 7 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 2.

V-Varen Nagasaki is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Oita Trinita's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, V-Varen Nagasaki is a strong favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:18. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, V-Varen Nagasaki won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:6. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- V-Varen Nagasaki
Japan J2 League
28.06.25	Montedio Yamagata - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2 ✺
22.06.25	Roasso Kumamoto - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:3 ✺
15.06.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Omiya Ardija	3:3 ✺
31.05.25	Mito HollyHock - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:0 ✺
25.05.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - JEF United Chiba	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWTLW
- Oita Trinita
Japan J2 League
28.06.25	Oita Trinita - Omiya Ardija	0:0 ✺
21.06.25	Tokushima Vortis - Oita Trinita	2:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
18.06.25	Consadole Sapporo - Oita Trinita	2:3 penalties ✺
Japan J2 League
15.06.25	Oita Trinita - Blaublitz Akita	1:2 ✺
07.06.25	Imabari - Oita Trinita	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
18.05.25	Oita Trinita - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:2
06.10.24	V-Varen Nagasaki - Oita Trinita	4:1
06.05.24	Oita Trinita - V-Varen Nagasaki	0:0
03.09.23	V-Varen Nagasaki - Oita Trinita	2:2
21.05.23	Oita Trinita - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:1
01.10.22	Oita Trinita - V-Varen Nagasaki	3:1
12.03.22	V-Varen Nagasaki - Oita Trinita	4:1

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