Match Info

J2 League - Round 24

Date: 2 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Toyama Stadium (Toyama)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	DAZN Japan


	Kataller Toyama		Omiya Ardija

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.5	2	Watch
	3.25	3.2	2
	3.35	3.4	2	Watch
	3.63	3.58	2.11
	3.44	3.40	2.06	Watch
	3.5	3.1	2
	3.3	3.53	2.07	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.41 ↑ (3.33)	3.39 ↓ (3.66)	2.03 ↑ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kataller Toyama
27.2%

Draw
27.3%

Omiya Ardija
45.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.6%

25.1%

47.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

24.1%

49.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kataller Toyama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Omiya Ardija has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kataller Toyama than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Omiya Ardija than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	61.5%	30.8%

Kataller Toyama - Omiya Ardija Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Kataller Toyama will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Omiya will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 61.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35% – 88%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Omiya (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Omiya (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tagawa T. (G) 88. Hama T. 4. Kamiyama K. 5. Imase J. 3. Kagawa Y. 33. Takahashi Y. 6. Sera S. 16. Sueki H. 18. Ito T. 8. Matsuoka D. 39. Furukawa M.	1. Kasahara T. (G) 20. Shimoguchi W. 4. Ichihara R. 13. Iyoha O. 22. Motegi R. 41. Yachida T. 7. Kojima M. 14. Izumi T. 18. Tsukui T. 10. Toyokawa Y. 90. Sunday O.
Substitutes
42. Hirao T. (G) 10. Matsuda R. 23. Nishiya S. 7. Sasaki Y. 22. Shiina N. 34. Takenaka G. 40. Takeuchi Y. 48. Ueda K. 14. Ura J.	29. Caprini 42. Fujii K. 44. Fukui K. 9. Gonzalez F. 21. Kato Y. (G) 34. Murakami Y. 28. Tomiyama T. 33. Wada T. 16. Yasumitsu S.
Coaches
Adachi R.	Nagasawa T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
44', 0 - 1, Izumi T. ⚽, Yachida T. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Tsukui T. ↓, Fujii K. ↑,
46', Ito T. ↓, Shiina N. ↑,
54', Sera S. ↓, Takenaka G. ↑,
59', Toyokawa Y. ↓, Caprini ↑,
62', Furukawa M. ↓, Ura J. ↑,
64', Iyoha O. 🟨,
70', Sunday O. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
75', Sueki H. ↓, Ueda K. ↑,
75', Matsuoka D. ↓, Matsuda R. ↑,
76', Ura J. 🟨,
79', Izumi T. ↓, Tomiyama T. ↑,
79', Yachida T. ↓, Wada T. ↑,
90+1', 0 - 2, Caprini ⚽, Tomiyama T. (A),

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion: )).

Kataller Toyama has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Omiya's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Recently, Kataller Toyama has had a series of away games.

Omiya could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Kataller Toyama won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Kataller Toyama won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Omiya Ardija - the odds 1.95 are the expected chance of winning is 47.25%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kataller Toyama
Japan Emperors Cup
16.07.25	Machida Zelvia - Kataller Toyama	2:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
12.07.25	Mito HollyHock - Kataller Toyama	3:0 ✺
05.07.25	Vegalta Sendai - Kataller Toyama	0:1 ✺
28.06.25	Kataller Toyama - JEF United Chiba	1:0 ✺
21.06.25	Iwaki - Kataller Toyama	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 LLWWL
- RB Omiya Ardija
Japan J2 League
12.07.25	Ventforet Kofu - Omiya Ardija	1:0 ✺
05.07.25	Omiya Ardija - Iwaki	1:2 ✺
28.06.25	Oita Trinita - Omiya Ardija	0:0 ✺
21.06.25	Omiya Ardija - Sagan Tosu	0:0 ✺
15.06.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Omiya Ardija	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
03.05.25	Omiya Ardija - Kataller Toyama	2:2
Japan J3 League
24.11.24	Omiya Ardija - Kataller Toyama	1:2
16.06.24	Kataller Toyama - Omiya Ardija	1:1

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