Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 8 July 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stadion Stožice (Ljubljana)

Referee: Vergetis C. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Slovakia	Kanal A


	Olimpija Ljubljana		Kairat

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.6	3.8	Watch
	1.68	3.9	5
	1.85	3.35	4.15	Watch
	1.91	3.4	4.29
				Watch
	1.73	3.6	4.6
	1.87	3.57	4.39	Watch
	1.7	3.7	4.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.44)	3.59 ↓ (4.5)	4.38 ↓ (7.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olimpija Ljubljana
52.3%

Draw
26.2%

Kairat
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

21.3%

12.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.8%

20.3%

11.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olimpija Ljubljana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Olimpija Ljubljana's form might have worsened.

Kairat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kairat's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olimpija Ljubljana than the current prediction. (+17.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Olimpija Ljubljana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kairat than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kairat, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.9%	7.1%	58.9%

Olimpija Ljubljana - Kairat Predictions

Users Predictions: 52 users predict this event. Olimpija will win (votes: 16 - 30.8%). Kairat will win (votes: 32 - 61.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kairat: 48.3% – 74.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 34 Selected Experts predict this event. Olimpija (votes: 9 - 26.5%). Kairat (votes: 23 - 67.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 5.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Kairat (2.98) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Kairat (2.99) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Kairat (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Kairat (1.95) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Olimpija (2.08) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 43 Selected Experts predict this event. Olimpija (votes: 10 - 23.3%). Kairat (votes: 31 - 72.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 4.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
36. Fink G. (G) 28. Diga 4. Jelenkovic V. 17. Muhamedbegovic A. 11. Blanco A. 23. Pinto D. 6. Agba P. 34. Doffo A. (C) 10. Mitrovski D. 24. Tamm A. 18. Brest M.	1. Zarutskiy A. (G) 4. Kasabulat D. 14. Martynovich A. (C) 80. Sorokin E. 3. Mata L. 33. Stanojev J. 18. Glazer D. 20. Tapalov E. 55. Gromyko V. 7. Jorginho 9. Satpaev D.
Substitutes
45. Acimovic M. 27. Ananou F. 2. Bristric A. 16. Celhaka J. 52. Dajcar M. (G) 19. Durdov I. 30. Gorenc J. 9. Kojic D. 81. Pecjak Z. 21. Pedreno M. 3. Urbancic J. 44. Zakrajsek V. (G)	77. Anarbekov T. (G) 89. Bagdat R. 81. Bekbolat I. 26. Edmilson Santos 82. Kalmyrza S. 24. Mrynskiy A. 6. Sadybekov A. 25. Shirobokov A. 59. Tashpulatov D. 10. Zaria G.
Coaches
Simao J.	Urazbakhtin R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Gromyko V. 🟨,
35', Jorginho 🟨,
36', Muhamedbegovic A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', Mitrovski D. 🟨,
56', Glazer D. 🟨,
59', 0 - 1, Satpaev D. ⚽, Jorginho (A),
60', Mitrovski D. ↓, Kojic D. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Pinto D. ⚽, Diga (A),
67', Gromyko V. ↓, Mrynskiy A. ↑,
68', Jorginho ↓, Edmilson Santos ↑,
76', Brest M. ↓, Bristric A. ↑,
77', Stanojev J. ↓, Bagdat R. ↑,
81', Tamm A. ↓, Durdov I. ↑,
82', Bagdat R. 🟨,
84', Simao J. 🟨,
89', Kasabulat D. ↓, Sadybekov A. ↑,
89', Bristric A. 🟨,
90', Satpaev D. ↓, Shirobokov A. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Olimpija is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Kairat is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Recently, Olimpija has had a series of home games.

In this match, Olimpija is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Olimpija will win today's game, with odds of 1.71.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Olimpija Ljubljana
Club Friendly
02.07.25	Olimpija Ljubljana - CSKA Sofia	3:0 ✺
25.06.25	Olimpija Ljubljana - MTK Budapest	3:3 ✺
21.06.25	Olimpija Ljubljana - Vardar	2:0 ✺
Slovenian PrvaLiga
24.05.25	NK Bravo - Olimpija Ljubljana	0:0 ✺
17.05.25	Olimpija Ljubljana - Radomlje	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTWTW
- Kairat Almaty
Kazakh Premier League
04.07.25	Kairat - Turan Turkistan	4:0 ✺
29.06.25	Ordabasy - Kairat	0:1 ✺
21.06.25	Kairat - Kyzylzhar	1:0 ✺
14.06.25	Zhetysu - Kairat	2:2 ✺
30.05.25	Aktobe - Kairat	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWWTW

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