Match Info

Premier League - Round 11

Date: 30 May 2025, Friday

Location: Koblandy Batyr Stadium (Aktobe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport
World	Onefootball


	Aktobe		Kairat

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.2	2.05
	3.2	3.25	2.17	Watch
	3.31	3.13	2.21
	3.24	3.18	2.15	Watch
	4.33	3.4	1.75
	3.46	3.23	2.15	Watch
	3.2	3.25	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.41 ↑ (2)	3.23 ↑ (3.1)	2.09 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aktobe
27.2%

Draw
28.6%

Kairat
44.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

27.3%

30.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

23.5%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aktobe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aktobe's form might have worsened.

Kairat has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kairat's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aktobe than the current prediction. (+22%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aktobe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kairat than the current prediction. (-18.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kairat, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.5%	15.4%	46.2%

Aktobe - Kairat Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Aktobe will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Kairat will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kairat: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Aktobe (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Kairat (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Aktobe (2.07) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Aktobe (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Aktobe (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Kairat (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Vlad A. (G) 26. Andjelkovic N. 12. Doumbouya A. 18. Jean J. 5. Kairov B. 6. Kasym A. (C) 15. Kiki G. 19. Omirtaev O. 2. Skvortsov L. 29. Usenov D. 88. Vatajelu B.	1. Zarutskiy A. (G) 15. Arad O. 18. Glazer D. 55. Gromyko V. 7. Jorginho 4. Kasabulat D. 14. Martynovich A. (C) 3. Mata L. 9. Satpaev D. 80. Sorokin E. 33. Stanojev J.
Substitutes
80. Abdulla A. 59. Abilkasov I. 4. Agbo U. 42. Baydavletov A. 67. Berdibek D. 9. Ivkovic D. 52. Kusainov S. (G) 22. Seydakhmet E. 1. Trofimets I. (G) 10. Umaev I. 57. Umaniyazov M. 3. Zhumagali S.	77. Anarbekov T. (G) 89. Bagdat R. 81. Bekbolat I. 24. Mrynskiy A. 6. Sadybekov A. 25. Shirobokov A. 20. Tapalov E. 59. Tashpulatov D.
Coaches
Levchuk V.	Urazbakhtin R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Kiki G. 🟨,
33', Kasym A. ↓, Baydavletov A. ↑,
44', Kairov B. 🟨,
44', Glazer D. 🟨,
45+2', Gromyko V. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
50', 1 - 0, Baydavletov A. ⚽, Omirtaev O. (A),
51', Baydavletov A. 🟨,
51', Usenov D. ↓, Berdibek D. ↑,
71', Gromyko V. 🟨,
75', 1 - 1, Martynovich A. ⚽, Mata L. (A),
77', Jean J. ↓, Umaev I. ↑,
78', Omirtaev O. ↓, Ivkovic D. ↑,
78', Skvortsov L. ↓, Agbo U. ↑,
79', Jorginho 🟨,
85', Ivkovic D. 🟨,
87', 1 - 2, Satpaev D. ⚽, Arad O. (A),
90', Arad O. ↓, Sadybekov A. ↑,
90', Satpaev D. ↓, Bagdat R. ↑,
90+4', Stanojev J. ↓, Tapalov E. ↑,
90+7', Kasabulat D. 🟨,
90+8', Umaev I. 🟨,
90+8', Andjelkovic N. 🟨,
90+8', Umaev I. 🟥,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aktobe won 3.

Aktobe is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Kairat has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

Kairat will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aktobe won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 15 matches, and goals 26:49. (average 1.3:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Aktobe won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.8:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Aktobe - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.38%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aktobe
Kazakh Premier League
25.05.25	Zhetysu - Aktobe	2:1 ✺
17.05.25	Okzhetpes - Aktobe	1:3 ✺
14.05.25	Kaisar - Aktobe	1:2 ✺
11.05.25	Aktobe - Yelimay Semey	1:0 ✺
03.05.25	Zhenis - Aktobe	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWWW
- Kairat Almaty
Kazakh Premier League
24.05.25	Kairat - Okzhetpes	1:2 ✺
18.05.25	Yelimay Semey - Kairat	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
14.05.25	Ordabasy - Kairat	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
09.05.25	Zhenis - Kairat	1:2 ✺
03.05.25	Ulytau - Kairat	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Super Cup
22.02.25	Kairat - Aktobe	2:0
Kazakh Premier League
04.10.24	Aktobe - Kairat	2:1
20.04.24	Kairat - Aktobe	1:3
06.08.23	Aktobe - Kairat	4:2
14.05.23	Kairat - Aktobe	2:1
06.11.22	Aktobe - Kairat	4:1
06.03.22	Kairat - Aktobe	2:0

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