Match Info

EUROPE: Europa Conference League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 9 May 2024, Thursday

Location: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium (Piraeus)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Belgium	VOOsport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Italy	Sky Sport
Netherlands	ESPN
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV3
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Xtra
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Olympiacos Piraeus		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	3.4	4	1.95
	3.25	3.7	1.93
	3.45	4.15	1.92
	3.5	4.04	2
	3.51	4.04	1.99
	3.53	3.98	1.95
	3.45	4	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.44 ↓ (4.88)	3.99 ↑ (3.79)	1.96 ↑ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympiacos Piraeus
27.6%

Draw
23.9%

Aston Villa
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.3%

24.9%

55.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.3%

22.6%

50.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympiacos Piraeus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Olympiacos Piraeus's performance.

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aston Villa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympiacos Piraeus than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Olympiacos Piraeus that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
34.9%	10.5%	54.7%

Olympiacos Piraeus - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 83 users predict this event. Olympiacos will win (votes: 28 - 33.7%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 46 - 55.4%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 10.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 44.7% – 66.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
88. Tzolakis K. (G) 23. Rodinei 45. Retsos P. 16. Carmo D. 18. Quini 32. Hezze S. 8. Iborra V. 6. Chiquinho 56. Podence D. 9. El Kaabi A. 7. Fortounis K. (C)	1. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 14. Torres P. 4. Konsa E. 3. Diego Carlos 12. Digne L. 19. Diaby M. 7. McGinn J. (C) 6. Douglas Luiz 31. Bailey L. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
15. Alexandropoulos S. 65. Apostolopoulos A. 20. Carvalho J. 11. El Arabi Y. 5. Horta A. 22. Jovetic S. 19. Masouras G. 74. Ntoi A. 99. Papadoudis A. (G) 1. Paschalakis A. (G) 70. Prekates V.	24. Duran J. 18. Gauci J. (G) 47. Iroegbunam T. 71. Kellyman O. 29. Kesler Hayden K. 17. Lenglet C. 69. Munroe F. 25. Olsen R. (G) 66. Patterson T. 72. Young K.
Coaches
Mendilibar J. L.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, El Kaabi A. ⚽, Quini (A),
31', Rodinei 🟨,
45+5', Douglas Luiz 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Podence D. 🟨,
58', Diaby M. ↓, Duran J. ↑,
63', Podence D. ↓, Masouras G. ↑,
65', Diego Carlos ↓, Iroegbunam T. ↑,
68', Quini 🟨,
73', Iroegbunam T. 🟨,
73', Iborra V. ↓, Horta A. ↑,
77', Quini ↓, Apostolopoulos A. ↑,
79', 2 - 0, El Kaabi A. ⚽, Tzolakis K. (A),
86', Cash M. ↓, Kesler Hayden K. ↑,
86', Digne L. ↓, Munroe F. ↑,
86', Bailey L. ↓, Kellyman O. ↑,
89', Duran J. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 4-2.

Olympiacos in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Aston Villa is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Aston Villa could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Aston Villa will have a mini benefit in this match.

There will not play in Olympiacos: Biancone G. (Injury) Fadiga B. (Injury) Leidner D. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Buendia E. (Knee Injury) Kamara B. (Knee Injury) Mings T. (Knee Injury) Ramsey J. (Foot Injury) Rogers M. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Olympiacos: Ortega F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Martinez E. (Thigh Injury) Tielemans Y. (Injury) Zaniolo N. (Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Olympiacos won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Olympiacos Piraeus
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.05.24	Aston Villa - Olympiacos Piraeus	2:4 ✺
Greek Super League
28.04.24	Olympiacos Piraeus - Lamia	4:1 ✺
24.04.24	Aris - Olympiacos Piraeus	1:1 ✺
21.04.24	Olympiacos Piraeus - PAOK	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.04.24	Fenerbahçe - Olympiacos Piraeus	1:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.1 WWTWW
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
05.05.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.05.24	Aston Villa - Olympiacos Piraeus	2:4 ✺
English Premier League
27.04.24	Aston Villa - Chelsea	2:2 ✺
21.04.24	Aston Villa - Bournemouth	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.04.24	Lille - Aston Villa	2:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
02.05.24	Aston Villa - Olympiacos Piraeus	2:4

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