Match Info

Premier League - Round 11

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Brooks J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport MaXimo 1
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Denmark	Viaplay
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Finland	Viaplay
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Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	K+ Action, K+, TV 360


	Aston Villa		Bournemouth

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.3	3.1
	2.35	3.5	3
	2.36	3.45	3.2
	2.15	3.53	3.30	Watch
	2.28	3.39	3.36	Watch
	2.14	3.45	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.15)	3.44 ↓ (3.53)	3.2 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
42.3%

Draw
27.8%

Bournemouth
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

26.9%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

27.9%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Bournemouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bournemouth than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.3%	25.4%	6.3%

Aston Villa - Bournemouth Predictions

Users Predictions: 62 users predict this event. Aston Villa will win (votes: 42 - 67.7%). Bournemouth will win (votes: 4 - 6.5%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 25.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 56.1% – 79.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Tie (votes: 7 - 46.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Bournemouth (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 8 - 50%). Bournemouth (votes: 1 - 6.3%). Tie (votes: 7 - 43.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 14. Torres P. 12. Digne L. 44. Kamara B. 24. Onana A. 7. McGinn J. (C) 27. Rogers M. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.	1. Petrovic D. (G) 15. Smith A. (C) 5. Senesi M. 44. Milosavljevic V. 3. Truffert A. 8. Scott A. 12. Adams T. 24. Semenyo A. 19. Kluivert J. 16. Tavernier M. 9. Evanilson
Substitutes
6. Barkley R. 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 29. Guessand E. 3. Lindelof V. 22. Maatsen I. 17. Malen D. 19. Sancho J. 8. Tielemans Y.	21. Adli A. 7. Brooks D. 10. Christie R. 4. Cook L. 40. Dennis W. (G) 18. Diakite B. 11. Doak B. 20. Jimenez A. 22. Kroupi E. J.
Coaches
Emery U.	Iraola A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', Smith A. ↓, Jimenez A. ↑,
13', Rogers M. 🟨,
23', Kamara B. 🟨,
27', Jimenez A. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Buendia E. ⚽,
38', Truffert A. 🟨,
40', 2 - 0, Onana A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Jimenez A. ↓, Cook L. ↑,
63', Truffert A. ↓, Adli A. ↑,
63', Kluivert J. ↓, Kroupi E. J. ↑,
63', Scott A. ↓, Christie R. ↑,
67', Semenyo A. (Pen),
71', Buendia E. ↓, Barkley R. ↑,
71', McGinn J. ↓, Tielemans Y. ↑,
71', Onana A. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
77', 3 - 0, Barkley R. ⚽, Digne L. (A),
77', Evanilson ↓, Brooks D. ↑,
81', Kamara B. ↓, Malen D. ↑,
81', Watkins O. ↓, Bogarde L. ↑,
82', 4 - 0, Malen D. ⚽, Tielemans Y. (A),
86', Rogers M. ↓, Guessand E. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Aston Villa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Aston Villa could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Garcia A. (Injury) Mings T. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Bournemouth: Adams T. (Knee Injury) Jimenez A. (Calf Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.8:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
UEFA Europa League
06.11.25	Aston Villa - Maccabi Tel Aviv	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
01.11.25	Liverpool - Aston Villa	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Aston Villa - Manchester City	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Go Ahead Eagles - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
19.10.25	Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WLWLW
- AFC Bournemouth
English Premier League
02.11.25	Manchester City - Bournemouth	3:1 ✺
26.10.25	Bournemouth - Nottingham Forest	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Crystal Palace - Bournemouth	3:3 ✺
03.10.25	Bournemouth - Fulham	3:1 ✺
27.09.25	Leeds United - Bournemouth	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
10.05.25	Bournemouth - Aston Villa	0:1
26.10.24	Aston Villa - Bournemouth	1:1
21.04.24	Aston Villa - Bournemouth	3:1
03.12.23	Bournemouth - Aston Villa	2:2
18.03.23	Aston Villa - Bournemouth	3:0
06.08.22	Bournemouth - Aston Villa	2:0
01.02.20	Bournemouth - Aston Villa	2:1

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