Match Info

Premier League - Round 11

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Brooks J. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Albania	15:00	SuperSport 1
Argentina	11:00	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	18:00	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 9, TOD
Australia	01:00	Stan Sport
Austria	15:00	Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	18:00	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	15:00	Play Sports 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	15:00	Arena Sport 3
Brazil	11:00	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	16:00	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	09:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 3 DRM
Chile	11:00	Disney+
China	22:00	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	09:00	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	15:00	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	15:00	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	15:00	Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	16:00	Viaplay
France	15:00	Canal+ Live 2
Georgia	18:00	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	15:00	Amazon Prime Video, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 8, WOW
Greece	16:00	Nova Sports 5
Hong Kong	22:00	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 2
Hungary	15:00	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	14:00	SÝN Sport 5
India	19:30	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	21:00	Vidio
Ireland	14:00	NOW
Israel	16:00	Sport 4
Italy	15:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257
Japan	23:00	U-NEXT
Kenya	17:00	Gotv
Kyrgyzstan	20:00	Setanta Sports 1
Malaysia	22:00	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Astro Premier League, Canal+, Canal+ Sport 2, Sooka
Malta	15:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 2
Mexico	08:00	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, FOX One
Moldova	16:00	Setanta Sports 1
Mongolia	22:00	Premier Sports 2
Myanmar	20:30	Canal+ Myanmar
Nepal	19:45	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	15:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	03:00	Sky Sport 7
Nigeria	15:00	SuperSport Action, Supersport Maximo 1
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN Caribbean
North Macedonia	15:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	15:00	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 4
Peru	09:00	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	15:00	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	14:00	DAZN / App
Romania	16:00	Voyo
Serbia	15:00	Arena Sport 3
Singapore	22:00	Hub Premier 2
Slovakia	15:00	Voyo
South Africa	16:00	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Variety 3
South America	—	ESPN South
South Korea	23:00	Coupang Play
Spain	15:00	DAZN 2 Bar Espana, DAZN 2 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:00	Viaplay
Taiwan	22:00	ELTA Sports 1
Tajikistan	19:00	Setanta Sports 1
Thailand	21:00	AIS PLAY
Turkey	17:00	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkmenistan	19:00	Setanta Sports 1
United Kingdom	14:00	NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go
Uruguay	11:00	Disney+
Usa	09:00	Fubo Sports Network, NBC Sports App, NBC, USA Network
Uzbekistan	19:00	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	10:00	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	21:00	K+ Action, K+, TV 360


	Aston Villa		Bournemouth

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.3	3.1
	2.35	3.5	3
	2.36	3.45	3.2
	2.15	3.53	3.30	Watch
	2.28	3.39	3.36	Watch
	2.14	3.45	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.15)	3.44 ↓ (3.53)	3.2 ↓ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
42.3%

Draw
27.8%

Bournemouth
29.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.2%

26.9%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

27.3%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Bournemouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bournemouth than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.3%	25.4%	6.3%

Aston Villa - Bournemouth Predictions

Users Predictions: 62 users predict this event. Aston Villa will win (votes: 42 - 67.7%). Bournemouth will win (votes: 4 - 6.5%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 25.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 56.1% – 79.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Tie (votes: 7 - 46.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Bournemouth (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 16 Selected Experts predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 8 - 50%). Bournemouth (votes: 1 - 6.3%). Tie (votes: 7 - 43.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Martinez E. (G) 2. Cash M. 4. Konsa E. 14. Torres P. 12. Digne L. 44. Kamara B. 24. Onana A. 7. McGinn J. (C) 27. Rogers M. 10. Buendia E. 11. Watkins O.	1. Petrovic D. (G) 15. Smith A. (C) 5. Senesi M. 44. Milosavljevic V. 3. Truffert A. 8. Scott A. 12. Adams T. 24. Semenyo A. 19. Kluivert J. 16. Tavernier M. 9. Evanilson
Substitutes
6. Barkley R. 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 29. Guessand E. 3. Lindelof V. 22. Maatsen I. 17. Malen D. 19. Sancho J. 8. Tielemans Y.	21. Adli A. 7. Brooks D. 10. Christie R. 4. Cook L. 40. Dennis W. (G) 18. Diakite B. 11. Doak B. 20. Jimenez A. 22. Kroupi E. J.
Coaches
Emery U.	Iraola A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', Smith A. ↓, Jimenez A. ↑,
13', Rogers M. 🟨,
23', Kamara B. 🟨,
27', Jimenez A. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Buendia E. ⚽,
38', Truffert A. 🟨,
40', 2 - 0, Onana A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Jimenez A. ↓, Cook L. ↑,
63', Truffert A. ↓, Adli A. ↑,
63', Kluivert J. ↓, Kroupi E. J. ↑,
63', Scott A. ↓, Christie R. ↑,
67', Semenyo A. (Pen),
71', Buendia E. ↓, Barkley R. ↑,
71', McGinn J. ↓, Tielemans Y. ↑,
71', Onana A. ↓, Sancho J. ↑,
77', 3 - 0, Barkley R. ⚽, Digne L. (A),
77', Evanilson ↓, Brooks D. ↑,
81', Kamara B. ↓, Malen D. ↑,
81', Watkins O. ↓, Bogarde L. ↑,
82', 4 - 0, Malen D. ⚽, Tielemans Y. (A),
86', Rogers M. ↓, Guessand E. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Aston Villa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Aston Villa could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Garcia A. (Injury) Mings T. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Bournemouth: Adams T. (Knee Injury) Jimenez A. (Calf Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.8:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
UEFA Europa League
06.11.25	Aston Villa - Maccabi Tel Aviv	2:0 ✺
English Premier League
01.11.25	Liverpool - Aston Villa	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Aston Villa - Manchester City	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.10.25	Go Ahead Eagles - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
English Premier League
19.10.25	Tottenham Hotspur - Aston Villa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WLWLW
- AFC Bournemouth
English Premier League
02.11.25	Manchester City - Bournemouth	3:1 ✺
26.10.25	Bournemouth - Nottingham Forest	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Crystal Palace - Bournemouth	3:3 ✺
03.10.25	Bournemouth - Fulham	3:1 ✺
27.09.25	Leeds United - Bournemouth	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
10.05.25	Bournemouth - Aston Villa	0:1
26.10.24	Aston Villa - Bournemouth	1:1
21.04.24	Aston Villa - Bournemouth	3:1
03.12.23	Bournemouth - Aston Villa	2:2
18.03.23	Aston Villa - Bournemouth	3:0
06.08.22	Bournemouth - Aston Villa	2:0
01.02.20	Bournemouth - Aston Villa	2:1

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