Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

Referee: Sanchez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lille		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.2	2.25
	2.87	3.4	2.37
	3.3	3.2	2.35
	3.45	3.25	2.32
	3.33	3.3	2.25	Watch
	3.3	3.1	2.2
	3.57	3.29	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↑ (2.85)	3.25 ↓ (3.45)	2.28 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lille
28.9%

Draw
29.4%

Aston Villa
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

27.5%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

28.4%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31%	33.3%	35.7%

Lille - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Lille will win (votes: 12 - 31.6%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 13 - 34.2%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 34.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 19.1% – 49.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Lille (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Aston Villa (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Lille (3.30) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Aston Villa (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Lille (2.24) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Lille (votes: 7 - 50%). Aston Villa (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ozer B. (G) 22. Santos T. 18. Mbemba Ch. 23. Mandi A. 15. Perraud R. 17. Mukau N. 21. Andre B. (C) 6. Bentaleb N. 28. Perrin G. 9. Giroud O. 10. Haraldsson H.	23. Martinez E. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 4. Konsa E. (C) 14. Torres P. 12. Digne L. 19. Sancho J. 24. Onana A. 21. Douglas Luiz 10. Buendia E. 27. Rogers M. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
4. Alexsandro 16. Bodart A. (G) 32. Bouaddi A. 42. Boussadia S. 27. Correia F. 35. Diaoune S. 20. Edjouma N. 7. Fernandez-Pardo M. 60. Lanssade Z. (G) 12. Meunier T. 3. Ngoy N. 24. Verdonk C.	18. Abraham T. 31. Bailey L. 40. Bizot M. (G) 9. Elliott H. 16. Garcia A. 3. Lindelof V. 22. Maatsen I. 7. McGinn J. 5. Mings T. 64. Wright J. (G)
Coaches
Genesio B.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Andre B. ↓, Bouaddi A. ↑,
52', Perrin G. ↓, Fernandez-Pardo M. ↑,
61', 0 - 1, Watkins O. ⚽, Buendia E. (A),
66', Santos T. ↓, Meunier T. ↑,
66', Mukau N. ↓, Correia F. ↑,
77', Watkins O. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
77', Douglas Luiz ↓, McGinn J. ↑,
83', Sancho J. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
83', Buendia E. ↓, Bailey L. ↑,
83', Haraldsson H. ↓, Diaoune S. ↑,
88', Martinez E. 🟨,
90', Rogers M. ↓, Elliott H. ↑,
90+2', Digne L. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Lille is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Aston Villa is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Aston Villa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Aston Villa has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Lille: Caillard M. (Injury) Igamane H. (Knee Injury) Mbappe E. (Thigh Injury) Sahraoui O. (Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Alysson (Inactive) Elliott H. (Injury) Garcia A. (Muscle Injury) Kamara B. (Knee Injury) Madjo B. (Inactive) Tielemans Y. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: McGinn J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lille won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Lille won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Lille - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 33.35%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
08.03.26	Lille - Lorient	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Lille - Nantes	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Lille	0:2 ET ✺
French Ligue 1
22.02.26	Angers - Lille	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Lille - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWWWL
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
04.03.26	Aston Villa - Chelsea	1:4 ✺
27.02.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Aston Villa	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Aston Villa - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
11.02.26	Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
18.04.24	Lille - Aston Villa	2:2 penalties
11.04.24	Aston Villa - Lille	2:1

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