Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Sanchez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	14:45	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	21:45	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	04:45	Stan Sport
Austria	18:45	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belgium	18:45	Play Sports 4, RTBF Tipik
Bolivia	13:45	ESPN
Bulgaria	19:45	Max Sport 3
Canada	13:45	DAZN Canada
Chile	14:45	ESPN 5
Colombia	12:45	ESPN
Croatia	18:45	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	19:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech Republic	18:45	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	18:45	Disney+
Ecuador	12:45	ESPN
Finland	19:45	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	18:45	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2, CANAL+ Sport
Georgia	21:45	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Universal
Germany	18:45	RTL+
Greece	19:45	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hong Kong	01:45	beIN Sports 3
Iceland	17:45	SÝN Sport
Indonesia	00:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	19:45	Sport 2
Italy	18:45	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport MIX
Kenya	20:45	Gotv
Kosovo	18:45	Arena Premium 4
Laos	00:45	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	18:45	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	11:45	Disney+, ESPN 4
New Zealand	06:45	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	18:45	Supersport Maximo 2
North Central America	—	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
North Macedonia	18:45	TDM Desporto
Norway	18:45	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	22:45	Tapmad
Paraguay	14:45	ESPN
Peru	12:45	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	01:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	18:45	Polsat Sport Extra 3
Portugal	17:45	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	19:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	20:45	Okko Sport
Serbia	18:45	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	01:45	beIN Sport 1
South Africa	19:45	SuperSport Premier League
South America	—	ViX Latin America
South Korea	02:45	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Sweden	18:45	Disney+
Switzerland	18:45	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	00:45	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	20:45	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	19:45	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	17:45	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	14:45	Disney+
Usa	13:45	Paramount+
Venezuela	13:45	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	00:45	ON Plus
International	17:45	VIX App


	Lille		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.2	2.25
	2.87	3.4	2.37
	3.3	3.2	2.35
	3.45	3.25	2.32
	3.33	3.3	2.25	Watch
	3.3	3.1	2.2
	3.57	3.29	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↑ (2.85)	3.25 ↓ (3.45)	2.28 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lille
28.9%

Draw
29.4%

Aston Villa
41.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.3%

27.5%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

28.4%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31%	33.3%	35.7%

Lille - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Lille will win (votes: 12 - 31.6%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 13 - 34.2%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 34.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 19.1% – 49.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Lille (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Aston Villa (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Lille (3.30) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Aston Villa (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Lille (2.24) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Lille (votes: 7 - 50%). Aston Villa (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ozer B. (G) 22. Santos T. 18. Mbemba Ch. 23. Mandi A. 15. Perraud R. 17. Mukau N. 21. Andre B. (C) 6. Bentaleb N. 28. Perrin G. 9. Giroud O. 10. Haraldsson H.	23. Martinez E. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 4. Konsa E. (C) 14. Torres P. 12. Digne L. 19. Sancho J. 24. Onana A. 21. Douglas Luiz 10. Buendia E. 27. Rogers M. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
4. Alexsandro 16. Bodart A. (G) 32. Bouaddi A. 42. Boussadia S. 27. Correia F. 35. Diaoune S. 20. Edjouma N. 7. Fernandez-Pardo M. 60. Lanssade Z. (G) 12. Meunier T. 3. Ngoy N. 24. Verdonk C.	18. Abraham T. 31. Bailey L. 40. Bizot M. (G) 9. Elliott H. 16. Garcia A. 3. Lindelof V. 22. Maatsen I. 7. McGinn J. 5. Mings T. 64. Wright J. (G)
Coaches
Genesio B.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Andre B. ↓, Bouaddi A. ↑,
52', Perrin G. ↓, Fernandez-Pardo M. ↑,
61', 0 - 1, Watkins O. ⚽, Buendia E. (A),
66', Santos T. ↓, Meunier T. ↑,
66', Mukau N. ↓, Correia F. ↑,
77', Watkins O. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
77', Douglas Luiz ↓, McGinn J. ↑,
83', Sancho J. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
83', Buendia E. ↓, Bailey L. ↑,
83', Haraldsson H. ↓, Diaoune S. ↑,
88', Martinez E. 🟨,
90', Rogers M. ↓, Elliott H. ↑,
90+2', Digne L. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Lille is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Aston Villa is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Aston Villa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Aston Villa has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Lille: Caillard M. (Injury) Igamane H. (Knee Injury) Mbappe E. (Thigh Injury) Sahraoui O. (Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Alysson (Inactive) Elliott H. (Injury) Garcia A. (Muscle Injury) Kamara B. (Knee Injury) Madjo B. (Inactive) Tielemans Y. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: McGinn J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lille won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Lille won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Lille - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 33.35%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
08.03.26	Lille - Lorient	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Lille - Nantes	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Lille	0:2 ET ✺
French Ligue 1
22.02.26	Angers - Lille	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Lille - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWWWL
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
04.03.26	Aston Villa - Chelsea	1:4 ✺
27.02.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Aston Villa	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Aston Villa - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
11.02.26	Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
18.04.24	Lille - Aston Villa	2:2 penalties
11.04.24	Aston Villa - Lille	2:1

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