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Lille vs Aston Villa Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, March 12, 2026)

Match Info

Europa League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

Referee: Sanchez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
Belgium	Play Sports 4, RTBF Tipik
Bolivia	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	ESPN 5
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Sport 1
Denmark	Disney+
Ecuador	ESPN
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	CANAL+ Foot, Canal+ Live 2, CANAL+ Sport
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1, Silk Universal
Germany	RTL+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Iceland	SÝN Sport
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport MIX
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 2
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 1 Caribbean
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	Polsat Sport Extra 3
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii Spor 1, Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus
World	VIX App


	Lille		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.2	2.25
	2.87	3.4	2.37
	3.3	3.2	2.35
	3.45	3.25	2.32
	3.33	3.3	2.25	Watch
	3.3	3.1	2.2
	3.57	3.29	2.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↑ (2.85)	3.25 ↓ (3.45)	2.28 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lille
28.9%

Draw
29.4%

Aston Villa
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

27.5%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

28.4%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31%	33.3%	35.7%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Lille will win (votes: 12 - 31.6%). Aston Villa will win (votes: 13 - 34.2%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 34.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 19.1% – 49.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Lille (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Aston Villa (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Lille (3.30) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Aston Villa (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Lille (2.24) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Lille (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Aston Villa (votes: 3 - 20%). Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ozer B. (G) 22. Santos T. 18. Mbemba Ch. 23. Mandi A. 15. Perraud R. 17. Mukau N. 21. Andre B. (C) 6. Bentaleb N. 28. Perrin G. 9. Giroud O. 10. Haraldsson H.	23. Martinez E. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 4. Konsa E. (C) 14. Torres P. 12. Digne L. 19. Sancho J. 24. Onana A. 21. Douglas Luiz 10. Buendia E. 27. Rogers M. 11. Watkins O.
Substitutes
4. Alexsandro 16. Bodart A. (G) 32. Bouaddi A. 42. Boussadia S. 27. Correia F. 35. Diaoune S. 20. Edjouma N. 7. Fernandez-Pardo M. 60. Lanssade Z. (G) 12. Meunier T. 3. Ngoy N. 24. Verdonk C.	18. Abraham T. 31. Bailey L. 40. Bizot M. (G) 9. Elliott H. 16. Garcia A. 3. Lindelof V. 22. Maatsen I. 7. McGinn J. 5. Mings T. 64. Wright J. (G)
Coaches
Genesio B.	Emery U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Andre B. ↓, Bouaddi A. ↑,
52', Perrin G. ↓, Fernandez-Pardo M. ↑,
61', 0 - 1, Watkins O. ⚽, Buendia E. (A),
66', Santos T. ↓, Meunier T. ↑,
66', Mukau N. ↓, Correia F. ↑,
77', Watkins O. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
77', Douglas Luiz ↓, McGinn J. ↑,
83', Sancho J. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
83', Buendia E. ↓, Bailey L. ↑,
83', Haraldsson H. ↓, Diaoune S. ↑,
88', Martinez E. 🟨,
90', Rogers M. ↓, Elliott H. ↑,
90+2', Digne L. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Lille is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Aston Villa is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Aston Villa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Aston Villa has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Lille: Caillard M. (Injury) Igamane H. (Knee Injury) Mbappe E. (Thigh Injury) Sahraoui O. (Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Alysson (Inactive) Elliott H. (Injury) Garcia A. (Muscle Injury) Kamara B. (Knee Injury) Madjo B. (Inactive) Tielemans Y. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: McGinn J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lille won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, Lille won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2.

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Last Results with these Odds

Lille - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 33.35%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
08.03.26	Lille - Lorient	1:1 ✺
01.03.26	Lille - Nantes	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Lille	0:2 ET ✺
French Ligue 1
22.02.26	Angers - Lille	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Lille - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TWWWL
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
04.03.26	Aston Villa - Chelsea	1:4 ✺
27.02.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Aston Villa	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Aston Villa - Leeds United	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
14.02.26	Aston Villa - Newcastle United	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
11.02.26	Aston Villa - Brighton & Hove Albion	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
18.04.24	Lille - Aston Villa	2:2 penalties
11.04.24	Aston Villa - Lille	2:1

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