Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 21 September 2023, Thursday

Location: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium (Piraeus)

Referee: Lindhout A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Brazil	ESPN 4
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	RTL
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Canal 11
Serbia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Olympiacos Piraeus		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.3	2.75
	2.6	3.4	2.8	Watch
	2.59	3.2	2.8
	2.64	3.36	2.85
	2.4	3.2	2.6
	2.56	3.44	2.71
	2.6	3.4	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↓ (2.97)	3.33 ↓ (3.34)	2.76 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympiacos Piraeus
37.1%

Draw
28.5%

Freiburg
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

28%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

28.2%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympiacos Piraeus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Olympiacos Piraeus's performance.

Freiburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Freiburg might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Olympiacos Piraeus than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Olympiacos Piraeus that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Freiburg could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	16.7%	20.8%

Olympiacos Piraeus - Freiburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Olympiacos will win (votes: 15 - 62.5%). Freiburg will win (votes: 5 - 20.8%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Olympiacos: 43.1% – 81.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Paschalakis A. (G) 23. Rodinei 45. Retsos P. 16. Freire N. 3. Ortega F. 32. Hezze S. 4. Camara M. 19. Masouras G. 21. Biel P. 7. Fortounis K. (C) 9. El Kaabi A.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 17. Kubler L. 28. Ginter M. 3. Lienhart P. 4. Schmidt K. 8. Eggestein M. 27. Hofler N. 42. Doan R. 22. Sallai R. 32. Grifo V. (C) 9. Holer L.
Substitutes
15. Alexandropoulos S. 11. El Arabi Y. 8. Iborra V. 22. Jovetic S. 74. Ntoi A. 56. Podence D. 25. Porozo J. 18. Quini 10. Scarpa G. 98. Solbakken O. 88. Tzolakis K. (G) 17. Vrousai M.	20. Adamu J. 44. Breunig M. 14. Keitel Y. 33. Makengo J. 21. Muller F. (G) 26. Philipp M. 34. Rohl M. 58. Sauter N. (G) 25. Sildillia K. 7. Weisshaupt N.
Coaches
Martinez D.	Streich C.

Preview

Olympiacos in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Freiburg is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Olympiacos could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Olympiacos: Leidner D. (Knee Injury) Richards O. (Calf Injury)

There will not play in Freiburg: Gulde M. (Red Card) Gunter C. (Elbow Injury) Keitel Y. (Groin Injury) Kyereh D. (Knee Injury) Lienhart P. (Shoulder Injury) Philipp M. (Muscle Injury) Rosenfelder M. (Tendon Injury) Uphoff B. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Olympiacos: Androutsos A. (Injury) Fadiga B. (Injury)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Gregoritsch M. (Calf Injury) Holer L. (Knock)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Olympiacos won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Olympiacos won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Olympiacos Piraeus
Greek Super League
17.09.23	AEK Athens - Olympiacos Piraeus	1:1 ✺
03.09.23	Olympiacos Piraeus - Lamia	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
31.08.23	Čukarički - Olympiacos Piraeus	0:3 ✺
Greek Super League
27.08.23	Olympiacos Piraeus - Atromitos Athens	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.08.23	Olympiacos Piraeus - Čukarički	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWWWW
- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
16.09.23	Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund	2:4 ✺
Club Friendly
07.09.23	Karlsruher - Freiburg	0:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
02.09.23	Stuttgart - Freiburg	5:0 ✺
26.08.23	Freiburg - Werder Bremen	1:0 ✺
19.08.23	Hoffenheim - Freiburg	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
27.10.22	Freiburg - Olympiacos Piraeus	1:1
15.09.22	Olympiacos Piraeus - Freiburg	0:3
Club Friendly
18.07.13	Freiburg - Olympiacos Piraeus	4:2

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