Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 14

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Freiburg		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.3	2.15	Watch
	3.45	3.35	2.18	Watch
	3.64	3.5	2.2
	3.48	3.49	2.11	Watch
	3.3	3.25	2.1	Watch
	3.6	3.48	2.23	Watch
	3.66	3.33	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↑ (3.22)	3.39 ↓ (3.55)	2.15 ↓ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg
27.3%

Draw
28.3%

Borussia Dortmund
44.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.5%

26.8%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

27.7%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Borussia Dortmund has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.5%	10.8%	75.7%

Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Freiburg will win (votes: 5 - 13.5%). Borussia D will win (votes: 28 - 75.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 10.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Borussia D: 61.9% – 89.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borussia Dortmund will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Atubolu N. (G) 17. Kubler L. 28. Ginter M. 5. Jung A. 30. Gunter C. 8. Eggestein M. 6. Osterhage P. 29. Treu P. 14. Suzuki Y. 44. Manzambi J. 9. Holer L.	1. Kobel G. (G) 23. Can E. (C) 4. Schlotterbeck N. 5. Bensebaini R. 2. Couto Y. 7. Bellingham J. 8. Nmecha F. 26. Ryerson J. 17. Chukwuemeka C. 9. Guirassy S. 21. Silva F.
Substitutes
20. Adamu J. 32. Grifo V. 27. Hofler N. 22. Irie C. 33. Makengo J. 31. Matanovic I. 21. Muller F. (G) 43. Ogbus B. 7. Scherhant D.	27. Adeyemi K. 14. Beier M. 30. Drewes P. (G) 13. Gross P. 33. Meyer A. (G) 25. Sule N. 24. Svensson D.
Coaches
Schuster J.	Kovac N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', Couto Y. 🟨,
11', Manzambi J. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Bensebaini R. ⚽, Couto Y. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Bellingham J. 🟥,
56', Silva F. ↓, Gross P. ↑,
72', Eggestein M. 🟨,
75', 1 - 1, Holer L. ⚽, Gunter C. (A),
76', Jung A. ↓, Grifo V. ↑,
76', Gunter C. ↓, Matanovic I. ↑,
78', Guirassy S. ↓, Beier M. ↑,
78', Chukwuemeka C. ↓, Svensson D. ↑,
83', Ryerson J. 🟨,
90+2', Couto Y. ↓, Adeyemi K. ↑,
90+3', Can E. ↓, Sule N. ↑,
90+6', Kubler L. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 0.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Borussia D may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Borussia D has had a series of home games.

Borussia D could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Freiburg: Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness) Rosenfelder M. (Injury)

There will not play in Borussia D: Anselmino A. (Injury) Anton W. (Injury) Sabitzer M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Dinkci E. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 16:57. (average 0.8:2.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Freiburg won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:25. (average 1:2.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Freiburg - the odds 3.22 are the expected chance of winning is 29.55%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Freiburg - Red Bull Salzburg	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
06.12.25	Heidenheim - Freiburg	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.12.25	Freiburg - Darmstadt	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
30.11.25	Freiburg - Mainz	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Viktoria Plzeň - Freiburg	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLWWT
- Borussia Dortmund
UEFA Champions League
10.12.25	Borussia Dortmund - Bodø Glimt	2:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
07.12.25	Borussia Dortmund - Hoffenheim	2:0 ✺
German DFB Pokal
02.12.25	Borussia Dortmund - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
29.11.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Borussia Dortmund	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Borussia Dortmund - Villarreal	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
05.04.25	Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:4
23.11.24	Borussia Dortmund - Freiburg	4:0
09.02.24	Borussia Dortmund - Freiburg	3:0
16.09.23	Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund	2:4
04.02.23	Borussia Dortmund - Freiburg	5:1
12.08.22	Freiburg - Borussia Dortmund	1:3
14.01.22	Borussia Dortmund - Freiburg	5:1

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