Match Info

DFB Pokal - Semi-finals

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday

Location: MHPArena (Stuttgart)

Referee: Welz T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Stuttgart		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	1.62	4.2	4.75	Watch
	1.65	4.15	4.95
	1.66	4.4	5.02
	1.62	4.44	4.89	Watch
	1.6	4	4.6
	1.69	4.47	5.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 (1.64)	4.28 ↑ (4.18)	4.87 ↓ (4.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stuttgart
58.1%

Draw
22.3%

Freiburg
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

22.7%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.5%

24.9%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stuttgart has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stuttgart, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.8%	3.8%	15.4%

Stuttgart - Freiburg Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Stuttgart (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Stuttgart will win (19 of 23 users predict this - 82.61%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.12% – 98.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Nubel A. (G) 3. Hendriks R. 24. Chabot J. 7. Mittelstadt M. 18. Leweling J. 16. Karazor A. (C) 6. Stiller A. 10. Fuhrich C. 26. Undav D. 28. Nartey N. 9. Demirovic E.	21. Muller F. (G) 29. Treu P. 28. Ginter M. 3. Lienhart P. 33. Makengo J. 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 19. Beste J. 14. Suzuki Y. 32. Grifo V. (C) 31. Matanovic I.
Substitutes
30. Andres C. 22. Assignon L. 27. Bouanani B. 1. Bredlow F. (G) 11. El Khannouss B. 14. Jaquez L. 8. Tomas T. 4. Vagnoman J. 23. Zagadou D.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 30. Gunter C. 27. Hofler N. 9. Holer L. 22. Irie C. 17. Kubler L. 43. Ogbus B. 26. Philipp M. 7. Scherhant D.
Coaches
Hoeness S.	Schuster J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Makengo J. 🟨,
15', Nartey N. 🟨,
17', Manzambi J. 🟨,
17', Leweling J. 🟨,
28', 0 - 1, Eggestein M. ⚽, Ginter M. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', Grifo V. 🟨,
63', Nartey N. ↓, El Khannouss B. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Undav D. ⚽, El Khannouss B. (A),
71', Grifo V. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
74', Matanovic I. 🟨,
84', Matanovic I. ↓, Holer L. ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 0)
91', Demirovic E. ↓, Tomas T. ↑,
94', Holer L. 🟨,
95', Hendriks R. 🟨,
98', Hendriks R. ↓, Jaquez L. ↑,
101', Makengo J. ↓, Gunter C. ↑,
102', Beste J. ↓, Kubler L. ↑,
113', Treu P. ↓, Ogbus B. ↑,
118', Fuhrich C. ↓, Bouanani B. ↑,
118', Undav D. ↓, Vagnoman J. ↑,
119', 2 - 1, Tomas T. ⚽, Bouanani B. (A),
120+1', Tomas T. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 3.

Stuttgart has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Freiburg is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Stuttgart may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Stuttgart is the team to beat.

There will not play in Stuttgart: Jeltsch F. (Injury) Jovanovic L. (Back Injury)

There are questionable in Freiburg: Osterhage P. (Knee Injury) Rosenfelder M. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Stuttgart won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 41:29. (average 2.1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Stuttgart won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 24:11. (average 2.2:1).

Outrights of German DFB Pokal for now

Freiburg: 1.9%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfB Stuttgart
German Bundesliga
19.04.26	Bayern Munich - Stuttgart	4:2 ✺
12.04.26	Stuttgart - Hamburger SV	4:0 ✺
04.04.26	Stuttgart - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Augsburg - Stuttgart	2:5 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Porto - Stuttgart	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLWL
- SC Freiburg
German Bundesliga
19.04.26	Freiburg - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
16.04.26	Celta de Vigo - Freiburg	1:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.04.26	Mainz - Freiburg	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Freiburg - Celta de Vigo	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Freiburg - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
01.02.26	Stuttgart - Freiburg	1:0
13.09.25	Freiburg - Stuttgart	3:1
18.01.25	Stuttgart - Freiburg	4:0
24.08.24	Freiburg - Stuttgart	3:1
03.02.24	Freiburg - Stuttgart	1:3
02.09.23	Stuttgart - Freiburg	5:0
11.02.23	Freiburg - Stuttgart	2:1

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