Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 1

Date: 2 October 2025, Thursday

Location: GSP Stadium (Nicosia)

Referee: Milanovic M. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 8
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Omonia TV
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 12
Germany	RTL+
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Russia	Okko Sport
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 13, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Disney+
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 13
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Omonia		Mainz

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.1	1.65
	4.7	3.95	1.65
	5.03	4.1	1.66
	4.78	4.13	1.66
	3.85	3.65	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.62 ↑ (3.72)	3.99 ↑ (3.6)	1.71 ↓ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Omonia
20.6%

Draw
23.8%

Mainz
55.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.1%

26%

48.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.2%

27%

50.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Omonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mainz's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Omonia than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.9%	11.1%	75%

Omonia - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 36 users predict this event. Omonia will win (votes: 5 - 13.9%). Mainz will win (votes: 27 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 60.9% – 89.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Mainz (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Mainz (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Mainz (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Omonia (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Mainz (1.16) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mainz will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Omonia (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Mainz (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Uzoho F. (G) 17. Agouzoul S. 5. Coulibaly S. 27. Simic S. 21. Masouras G. 31. Kousoulos I. (C) 6. Eiting C. 3. Kitsos F. 11. Ewandro 19. Mmaee R. 7. Semedo W.	27. Zentner R. (G) 21. da Costa D. 16. Bell S. 48. Potulski K. 22. Veratschnig N. 10. Amiri N. (C) 6. Sano K. 2. Mwene P. 8. Nebel P. 11. Sieb A. 9. Nordin A.
Substitutes
20. Andreou E. 74. Andreou P. 10. Chatzigiovanis A. 2. Dionkou A. 44. Erakovic N. 24. Khammas A. 90. Konstantinidis C. 98. Kyriakidis C. (G) 85. Neofytou A. 91. Panagi K. 30. Panagiotou N.	33. Batz D. (G) 37. Bobzien B. 14. Boving W. 38. Debrah J. 42. Gleiber D. 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 17. Hollerbach B. 24. Kawasaki S. 15. Maloney L. 1. Riess L. (G) 44. Weiper N. 30. Widmer S.
Coaches
Berg H.	Henriksen B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', Nordin A. 🟨,
60', Masouras G. ↓, Chatzigiovanis A. ↑,
60', Eiting C. ↓, Erakovic N. ↑,
60', Mmaee R. ↓, Neofytou A. ↑,
64', Veratschnig N. ↓, Bobzien B. ↑,
64', Potulski K. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,
71', Sieb A. ↓, Hollerbach B. ↑,
74', Agouzoul S. 🟨,
75', 0 - 1, Amiri N. (Pen),
80', Simic S. ↓, Dionkou A. ↑,
80', Semedo W. ↓, Andreou E. ↑,
89', Mwene P. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
89', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,

Preview

Omonia is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Mainz has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Mainz is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Omonia: Jovetic S. (Injury) Maric M. (Red Card) Stepinski M. (Inactive) Tankovic M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Mainz: Bos K. (Inactive) Caci A. (Muscle Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Gleiber D. (Thigh Injury) Tauer N. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Mainz: Hollerbach B. (Hamstring Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Omonia Nicosia
Cypriot First Division
28.09.25	Anorthosis - Omonia	0:5 ✺
22.09.25	Omonia - AEL Limassol	5:0 ✺
17.09.25	Omonia - AEK Larnaca	1:0 ✺
13.09.25	Omonia - Akritas Chlorakas	3:0 ✺
31.08.25	Ethnikos Achna - Omonia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWWL
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
27.09.25	Mainz - Borussia Dortmund	0:2 ✺
20.09.25	Augsburg - Mainz	1:4 ✺
13.09.25	Mainz - RB Leipzig	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Wolfsburg - Mainz	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
28.08.25	Mainz - Rosenborg	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWLTW

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